Designed in 2016, Ghana’s Gas Master Plan (GMP) has facilitated tremendous growth in gas-to-power plants infrastructure, however, assumptions underlying projections of the GMP are turning obsolete as new developments within the power sector such as nuclear power generation and LNG indicate the need for an update to the GMP.

With the recent label of gas and nuclear energy as ‘green’ by the EU, this presents a positive outlook for continuous investment into Ghana’s gas infrastructure. However, this also means that, the pace of energy sources such as nuclear energy is likely to accelerate far more than expected.

While Ghana’s gas deposits is in abundant supply, there are fears of over supply given new add-ons to the energy mix including liquefied natural gas (LNG)- within the short term and nuclear power- within the relatively long term.

Between January and September 2021, gas supply from the three oil producing fields (Jubilee, TEN and Sankofa) yielded a total of 77,196.45 MMscf of gas. This translated into average daily gas production of 282.77 MMscf delivered for power generation and non-power use.

Need for Update of GMP

This notwithstanding, noting that the above dynamics are imminent should ultimately highlight the need for an update of the Gas Master Plan (GMP). The following indications warrant a relook into the GMP.

In terms of nuclear power generation, the GMP postulates that:

“Nuclear power has not been included in the dispatch model although this is proposed by government. This seems a long term project with a high degree of uncertainty and could at the earliest be developed by 2035”.
GMP

However, the 2022 budget statement demonstrates the government’s commitment to seeing nuclear power generation begin sooner, as phase two of the nuclear project is underway and 2030 projected for the completion of the first nuclear plant.

“… Nine prospective vendors responded to the Request for Information (RFI) by Nuclear Power Ghana Limited in collaboration with the Ministry. Assessment and data collection of the four candidate sites are ongoing and the process for prospective nuclear power site identification is 25 percent complete.

“In 2022, the Ministry and Nuclear Power Ghana Limited will finalise processes to identify a vendor country. Efforts toward the identification of the preferred site for the first nuclear power plant will be continued.”
Ken Ofori-Attah, Minister of Finance

More so, further clarity to the fast switch towards nuclear energy use was when the Minister of Energy, Dr Mathew Opoku Prempeh, during a side event hosted by the International Atomic Energy Association at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow, United Kingdom dubbed: “Nuclear Innovation for a Net Zero World” said:

“The president has declared to Ghanaians that we want to go down the path of nuclear, and the reason is simple: our baseload can no longer be sustained by hydropower, so we need other low-carbon forms of energy for our baseload and the right way to go and the cleanest form is nuclear. With the support of the IAEA, with which we work cooperatively and closely, we are on the path to get us there.”
Dr Matthew Opoku Prempeh, Minister of Energy

Use of LNG not linked to long-term plans

Apart from this, there are no linkages between the use of LNG and natural gas in the long-term plan of the GMP. Just as the government intends to use natural gas to displace the use of fuel oil for power generation in the long-term, so is the use of LNG, however, critics have highlighted excess supply issues to remain elevated.

Stipulated in the Gas Master Plan is the rule that: “[Gas] exports are not a viable option for Ghana at the present, as the reserves are not enough.” Thus, should the concerns of excess supply hold in the coming of LNG, the considerations for exports of the gas will not suffice per the GMP.

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Indeed, there are successes that the existing GMP has brought to the GNGC, including the rise of gas production from 16 million standard cubic metres (mscm) of gas per day in 2015, to 90mscm/d in 2016 and now producing about 300 mscm/d.

Chief Executive Officer, Dr Ben K.D. Asante is cited to have said that “We expect that the gas volumes will increase in the Jubilee Field from the current maximum of 300mscm to 450mscm.

“We will advance our technical capabilities in the coming years by expanding our processing capacity to handle the incremental upscale flow from the Jubilee and the Tweneboa, Enyera and Ntomme (TEN) fields,” Dr Asante noted.

While commendable, the GNGC suffers a worrying trend of legacy debts which the GMP does not provide any solution to. The 2021 Semi-Annual report revealed that the debt stock had reached unsustainable levels; “Cumulative indebtedness to Ghana Gas continued to increase, totalling an amount of US$942,260,510.63 at the end of the period [January to June 2021].”

Given the changing dynamics within the sector including solving Ghana’s energy poverty issues and the uncertainties still surrounding the global climate rhetoric over admitting gas as ‘green’ indicates that policy frameworks should be up-to-date in order to reflect the expected outlook of the sector.