Ghana’s electricity consumption for 2022 is expected to rise to 23,578.51 GWh, up from 2021 consumption of 21,466.27 GWh, representing a growth of 9.77%, according to the 2022 Electricity Supply Plan.
The projected rise in energy consumption includes transmission network losses and station service usage of 1,069.79 GWh, representing about 4.5% of total electricity supply over the year. Likewise, the projected peak demand for 2022 is 3,545.27 MW, representing a growth of 9.2% over the 2021 peak demand of 3,246.0 MW.
Based on new estimates for 2022, projected total annual hydro generation is 7,394.15 GWh (7,520.82 GWh in 2021). 16,000.04 GWh (13,849.05 GWh in 2021) is expected to be generated from thermal energy and 184.38 GWh of electrical energy is expected from Renewable Energy sources (52.76 GWh from Solar in 2021).
Therefore, to ensure consistent supply of power from thermal generation, the report estimates that a total of US$988.0 million is required for thermal fuel purchase in 2022.
“No power import is anticipated till the end of the year. However, inadvertent energy exchanges on tie-lines could result from transient flows. Emergency imports may be necessitated as a result of short-term capacity shortages caused by faults or fuel supply contingencies.”
2022 Electricity Supply Plan
Demand Outlook of Electricity
According to the report, the Ghana system peak demand is projected to increase from 3,987 MW in 2023 to 5,172 MW in 2027.
In addition to this, total electricity requirement for Ghana including power exports to Togo, Benin, Burkina, and Mali is projected to increase from 25,983 GWh in 2023 to 34,920 GWh by 2027 at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.7%.
Furthermore, the existing generating capacities will not be adequate to serve the projected demand with 18% reserve margin for any of the planning years, the report notes.
That said additional capacity is needed to augment the existing generating facilities and the enlisted committed generation projects from years 2023 to 2027 to continue to meet projected demand with adequate reserve margin as required for reliability.
“Due to the growing electricity demand in Ghana, there is the need to make arrangements to increase gas supply volumes for more thermal generation,” the report recommends, adding that there is urgent need to make necessary investments towards an improved gas supply reliability owing to the increasing dependency on natural gas for power generation.
Moreover, the report recommends that efforts should be expedited to complete the relocation of the 250 MW Ameri Power Plant to Kumasi by September 2022 to create a new generation enclave in Kumasi.
“The results of analyses of the supply/demand outlook for the medium term (2023 – 2027) indicate that existing generating capacity will not be adequate to serve projected demand with the required 18% reserve margin for any of the planning years in the medium term. The timely completion of the 400 MW Bridge Power project as scheduled is needed to barely have adequate generation up to 2024.”
2022 Electricity Supply Plan
For 2025 and beyond, there will be the need to initiate a competitive least cost procurement of some additional generation capacity (51 MW in 2025 and 392 MW in 2026) in order “to continue to adequately meet the Ghana power system demand with the required 18% reserve,” according to the report.
