London-based research and data firm, Fitch Solutions, has predicted a defeat for the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) in the upcoming December 7 general elections, favoring the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) to take the reins of government.
The firm’s consistent forecast since last year aligns with its latest survey, which shows 54 percent of respondents tipping the National Democratic Congress Presidential Candidate, former President John Dramani Mahama, as the winner in the December polls.
Mike Kruiniger, Associate Director of Country Risk at Fitch Solutions, speaking at the Mid-Year Review for Sub-Saharan Africa, outlined the key factors influencing the forecast.
Mr Kruiniger emphasized that the current state of Ghana’s economy will significantly impact voter decisions in the upcoming December 7 polls.
“We believe that the opposition NDC has a stronger chance of winning the upcoming general elections compared to the ruling NPP. Recent polls consistently place the NDC ahead with the most recent survey showing 54 % of respondents favoring the NDC”.
Mike Kruiniger, Associate Director of Country Risk at Fitch Solutions,
Mr Kruiniger further stated that the economic hurdles that have plagued the New Patriotic Party administration, which has triggered widespread dissatisfaction among voters would be a crucial determinant in the electoral outcome.
According to him, the persistent economic challenges, including inflation, unemployment, and a depreciating currency under the New Patriotic Party administration have eroded public confidence in the ruling party’s ability to manage the economy effectively.
This, Mr Kruiniger, emphasized would contribute significantly to the outcome of the 2024 general elections in favor of the opposition National Democratic Congress.
“In addition, multiple surveys have shown that economic management and job creation are going to be the most important issues during the election for voters which we believe will put the ruling NPP at a disadvantage given the economic challenges that the country has faced over the last couple of years”.
Mike Kruiniger, Associate Director of Country Risk at Fitch Solutions,
The Direction of Ghana’s Future Economic Policy
Despite the forecasted shift in political power, the Associate Director of Country Risk at Fitch Solutions, Mike Kruiniger pointed out that a Mahama-led administration is not expected to drastically alter the country’s economic policy direction upon assumption of office.
He indicated that the National Democratic Congress when elected into power is likely to continue with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme initiated by the New Patriotic Party administration led by President Akufo-Addo and Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia.
“In terms of what a government change will mean for the economy, we think that policy direction under a likely NDC government will not largely change.
“The NDC will most likely stick to Ghana’s IMF programme, particularly as the party has shown commitment in the past to international agreements and obligations. So in summary, we expect policy continuation in Ghana despite a likely government change.
Mike Kruiniger, Associate Director of Country Risk at Fitch Solutions,
An earlier poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics indicated that the 2024 presidential race is tightening amidst a nationwide tour by the Vice President, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia.
The outcome showed that Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia has narrowed former President John Dramani Mahama’s lead in the poll by approximately 3% compared to its April 2024 poll.
According to the polling house, the National Democratic Congress flagbearer leads the New Patriotic Party’s flagbearer, Dr. Bawumia at 51.1% to 38.2%, Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen at 5.3%, Nana Kwame Bediako, at 4.6%, and others at 0.8%.
The December 7 general elections promise to be a closely watched event, with significant implications for Ghana’s future economic and political landscape.
As the NDC and NPP prepare to contest the polls, the economic narrative will undoubtedly play a central role in shaping voter sentiment and determining the outcome.
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