Tom Tugendhat has emerged as a notable frontrunner in the Tory leadership contest, boasting the lowest negative rating among the general public.

A Savanta poll reveals that the former security minister holds a net rating of -3 with the broader public and +28 with 2024 Tory voters.

This data starkly contrasts with former Home Secretary Priti Patel, who scores a -28 net rating with the public and +7 with Conservative voters.

These ratings set the stage for a highly competitive leadership race, with seven MPs anticipated to throw their hats into the ring. Nominations for contenders to succeed Rishi Sunak open today July 25 and close on Monday next week.

Candidates securing the backing of 10 Tory MPs will advance to the next stage.

Over the course of a four-month contest, Tory members will ultimately select their leader from the final two contenders chosen by MPs. The new leader will be announced on November 2.

James Cleverly, the former Home Secretary, launched his campaign with a video last night. However, his polling numbers are less favorable, showing a net rating of -9 with the public and +19 with Conservative voters.

In contrast, the bookmakers’ favorite, former Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch, has a -12 net rating with the public and +10 among 2024 Conservative voters.

Outspoken former Home Secretary Suella Braverman, known for her public criticism of rivals and warnings about the party’s liberal tendencies in government, scored a net rating of -23 with the public and +8 among 2024 Conservative voters.

Robert Jenrick and Mel Stride are also expected to enter the race. Meanwhile, outgoing Conservative leader Rishi Sunak’s net favorability stands at -28, a five-point improvement from his record low of -33 post-election on July 7.

Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta commented on the findings.

“The person who will most likely welcome our findings is Tom Tugendhat, who is the most popular Conservative leadership contender among the public and Conservative voters of those we polled. James Cleverly, who just announced his candidacy, is not far behind. Game on.”
Chris Hopkins

Labour Popularity Surge

In parallel, the recent election victory has bolstered the popularity of Labour leaders Sir Keir Starmer and his Chancellor, Rachel Reeves.

Reeves, with a net rating of +7, is nearly as popular with the public as Starmer, who leads the pack with a +9 rating. Hopkins noted, “Rachel Reeves’ surefooted start to her time in Number 11, taken alongside the post-election honeymoon for Labour, has meant that she is now one of the most popular politicians in the country – just behind Labour leader Keir Starmer.”

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey has also seen a surge in popularity, with his playful election antics helping increase his party’s MPs to 72. His net favorability improved from -4 to +3, a seven-percentage point increase.

Tom Tugendhat, a shadow security minister and a moderate within the party, has indicated a readiness to leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) if necessary to regain control of UK borders.

He dismissed concerns that the Conservative leadership election will be divisive, stating his focus will be on ECHR, gender, tax rates, defense spending, and net zero as leader.

As such, as the Conservative Party prepares to appoint a new leader to replace Rishi Sunak on November 2, the initial candidates, including James Cleverly, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat, Mel Stride, and Suella Braverman, have already picked up their nomination paperwork.

The race officially begins today, with contenders having until Monday to secure the support of 10 MPs to make it onto the ballot paper.