According to Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, a recent Ashanti regional poll published in August revealed that Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia led with 65.4%, followed by John Dramani Mahama with 23.7%, and Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen with 9.2%.
Dankwah stated that notably, analysis of the data shows that only 4% of voters who supported Nana Akufo-Addo in 2020 have defected to support John Mahama.
Additionally, he observed that a significant 16% of individuals who voted for John Mahama in 2020 have now shifted their support to Dr. Bawumia, resulting in a substantial net gain of 12% for Dr. Bawumia in the region.
“Crucially, DMB has lost 10% of Nana Addo’s 2020 voters to Alan Kyerematen. Crucially, among those who did not vote, JDM attracts 14%, DMB, 60%, and AKK, 21%”.
There is no better way to understand why the 2024 election is looking extremely different historically than when you analyze the data of voters who voted for Nana Addo and Mahama in 2020 and how they intend to vote in 2024”.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah further noted that a cross-tab analysis of the July 2024 poll highlighted a dramatic change in the electoral landscape since the 2020 contest.
He indicated that at the national level, a notable shift in voter intentions has occurred, with 22% of those who voted for Nana Addo in the 2020 election now planning to support John Mahama.
Meanwhile, only 5% of Mahama’s 2020 voters have switched to Dr. Bawumia, resulting in a net gain of +17% in favor of John Mahama, according to Dankwah.
The Data Analyst indicated that in the Northeast region, John Mahama made significant inroads, gaining 19% of Nana Addo’s voters, but simultaneously lost 19% of his own support to Dr. Bawumia.
He stated that despite this, Dr. Bawumia emerged with a slight advantage, securing a net gain of +1% in the region.
Bawumia Gains Ground In Ahafo Region
Moreover, Mussa Dankwah revealed that Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia achieved a notable net gain of 6% in the Ahafo region, further solidifying his support base.
Dankwah stated that John Mahama made significant gains across various regions, with the largest net gains coming from the Volta region (+39%), Greater Accra (+32%), Savannah (+27%), and Bono East (+26%).
He further noted that John Dramani Mahama also saw notable net gains in Central (+24%), Western (+21%), Western North (+21%), Northern (+20%), and several other regions, including Upper West, Bono, Upper East, Oti, Eastern, and Ashanti.
“There are nearly 90% of older voters compared to 10% of new voters according to the new register. Swing from older voters to a candidate will have a more profound effect than winning the majority of the new voters”.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah noted that the analysis focuses solely on the direct voter transfers between Nana Addo and John Mahama, excluding any votes they may have lost to third-party candidates, such as Alan Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako.
He explained that leading in the polls is no guarantee of victory or defeat, as opinion polls only reflect voter intentions, not actual voting behavior.
As such, Dankwah stated that ultimately, the outcome of the election depends on whether supporters of leading candidates show up to cast their ballots on Election Day.
He noted that in over 90% of cases, the actual election results will align with the poll predictions, within the margin of error, assuming voters follow through on their stated intentions.
Dankwah emphasized that the polls being published by Global InfoAnalytics are preliminary findings, not final predictions, with the definitive forecast to be released exactly 7 days prior to the December 7th elections.
“Every poll we have conducted has confirmed the prior results of the MRP with little movement in nearly 95% of the cases”. – Mussa Dankwah
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