In a move perceived by many as a last show of strength, U.S Outgoing President, Joe Biden has given Ukraine the green light to use the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles supplied by his country to strike within Russia.
The US’s ATACMS green light came two months before US President-elect Donald Trump takes office and follows months of pleas by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to allow Ukraine’s military to use US weapons to hit Russian military targets far from its border.
Following Biden’s decision, Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, formally lowered the threshold for Russia’s use of its nuclear weapons.
Speaking with the Vaultz News, Dr. Victor Doke, a Research Fellow at the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre, offered his insight into the decision’s strategic impact, Russia’s evolving nuclear posture and the broader consequences for nuclear diplomacy.
First of all, he noted that the timing is undoubtedly tied to the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming transition in U.S. leadership.
With President-elect Donald Trump taking office soon, there is a cloud of unpredictability surrounding U.S. support for Ukraine’s war effort. The Biden administration likely feels a sense of urgency to bolster Ukraine’s defenses before that shift.
However, he opined that Biden’s green light doesn’t augur well for the conflict actors themselves and other stakeholders like NATO and surrounding countries because “it means Russia may want to retaliate.”
“So I think this whole thing of giving the green light for Zelenskyy to use long range missiles is on a bad note and it won’t just solve any problems but cause more distraction.
Biden must have done a whole analysis with regards to the pros and cons and then has been advised that if this is approved, it could give Zelenskyy a lead, but it’s a wrong move to make because Russia has nuclear arsenals.
Dr. Victor Doke
Also, Dr. Doke asserted that Russia’s reconsidered threshold for nuclear retaliation changes the entire calculus of nuclear diplomacy.
Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine declares that a conventional attack on Russia by any nation that is supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack on his country.
The doctrine also states that an attack using conventional missiles, drones or other aircraft could be seen as justification for a nuclear response.
According to him, this shift underscores Russia’s determination to defend its sovereignty at all costs.
He opined that countries like Iran, North Korea and others may see Russia’s stance as a validation of their own nuclear ambitions.
“So then Russia leading the way on Kyiv or will obviously give the impetus to other nations like Iran, North Korea, to be empowered to also altering their own nuclear doctrines. This is what’s going to happen. Russia won’t back down, and they will, as putin has said, do it. I think world powers know who Putin is and his capabilities, so they are cautious.”
Dr. Victor Doke
This would create an even more unstable and unpredictable global environment, with nuclear weapons becoming a more entrenched part of national defense strategies.
Landmines Deemed As Bad Investment
Aside Biden giving Ukraine the opportunity to launch long range strikes, he also provided anti-personnel landlines to Ukraine.
Dr. Doke weighed the military advantage of such support against the potential for further civilian suffering and environmental damage in the region, saying, “There’s no advantage in this because at the end, you need to invest again in taking out the landmines.” He added, “So I see that’s a zero sum.”
“Nobody’s going to win in this case. It’s only going to cost, you know, harm. I really don’t see why mines land mines in this regard, been supplied. I think it was a bad investment in that place. I don’t know how the advice came up, but it’s going to affect the civilians.”
Dr. Victor Doke
He also mentioned that there will be environmental effects. “So I think the land mines issue was not just, thought through well,” he said.
To sum, Biden’s decision to green-light ATACMS missiles for Ukraine may offer a temporary strategic advantage, but it also escalates the risks of further escalation, particularly with Russia’s ever-growing nuclear threats.
In parallel, Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine injects a new layer of complexity into international relations, forcing global powers to reconsider their strategies.
As the conflict continues, the consequences of these decisions will ripple across the world stage, affecting not only Ukraine and Russia, but the broader global security landscape.
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