Somaliland has reaffirmed its agreement with Ethiopia granting the landlocked nation access to the Red Sea in exchange for recognition, despite the thawing of tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia.

Somaliland’s special envoy to the African Union, Abdulahi Mohammud, emphasized the autonomy of Somaliland’s policies, stating, “The relationship between Somalia and Ethiopia, that is their business. We are minding our own business.”

The memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland, signed in January, offered Ethiopia sea access through Somaliland’s ports in exchange for formal recognition of Somaliland’s sovereignty. However, Somalia strongly opposed the deal, asserting that it infringed on its territorial rights and sovereignty.

Tensions over the agreement escalated earlier this year, leading to the expulsion of Ethiopia’s ambassador from Somalia and the exclusion of Ethiopian troops from an African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia. However, a breakthrough occurred last week, facilitated by Turkish mediation.

In Ankara, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the Ankara Declaration, a compromise between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. The declaration recognizes Somalia’s sovereignty over its ports while promising Ethiopia sea access through bilateral agreements and technical arrangements.

Horn of Africa analyst Abdurahman Seid explained that technical talks are slated to begin in February and conclude within four months. “The meaning of technical arrangement is to discuss how the agreement will be implemented,” Seid noted, adding that these discussions aim to resolve lingering differences.

Seid further suggested that the declaration signals the nullification of Ethiopia’s MoU with Somaliland. “[The Ethiopia-Somaliland] has become voided,” he said, as Ethiopia’s commitment to Somalia’s sovereignty undermines its earlier deal with Somaliland.

Somaliland Insists MoU With Ethiopia Is Binding

Despite these developments, Somaliland’s leadership insists that its agreement with Ethiopia remains valid. President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, who campaigned on promises to reassess the deal for greater transparency, reiterated his administration’s commitment to the MoU.

“We have an agreement, a bilateral agreement on the basis of an MoU, it is standing. It’s between Somaliland and Ethiopia. What Ethiopia does with Somalia, that’s a completely different story,” Abdullahi stated.

In his inaugural address, Abdullahi pledged to intensify efforts for Somaliland’s international recognition while ensuring that the deal aligns with the region’s strategic goals. “The previous administration has signed an MoU with Ethiopia, and we were pursuing, making sure [the MoU] is finalized legally,” he added.

Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but remains unrecognized by the African Union or the United Nations. The region sees recognition as critical to securing its sovereignty and boosting its economic prospects.

Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s search for sea access continues. According to Seid, the Ankara Declaration could pave the way for Ethiopia to consider alternative ports in Somalia, including Berbera and Kismayo. “Now they will try to reach a new approach with Turkey mediation,” he said, though he acknowledged that building trust between Ethiopia and Somalia could be a lengthy process.

Ethiopia’s need for port access is pressing, as trade facilitation remains a cornerstone of its economic strategy. However, achieving a sustainable agreement depends on fostering mutual trust. “Ethiopia should not be a threat for Somalia and Somalia should not be a threat for Ethiopia,” Seid remarked.

The dynamics in the Horn of Africa remain fluid as Somaliland, Somalia, and Ethiopia navigate overlapping interests. Somaliland has reiterated that any external agreements will not deter its pursuit of recognition or its commitment to its deal with Ethiopia.

Meanwhile, Somalia and Ethiopia’s reconciliation marks a significant step in easing regional tensions, though the implications for Somaliland’s ambitions remain uncertain. As technical talks commence early next year, the Horn of Africa faces a complex negotiation process that could reshape its political and economic landscape.