Mussa Dankwah, the Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, has revealed insightful findings from an exit poll conducted by his organization on the issue of voter inducement during the recent elections.
According to Dankwah, the data indicates that out of every 10 people who received inducements from the National Democratic Congress (NDC), six were already supporters or voters of the NDC.
This suggests that a majority of those who benefited from the NDC’s inducement efforts were individuals who were likely to vote for the party even without the incentives.
Dankwah noted that in contrast, for the New Patriotic Party (NPP), the figures revealed that only five out of every 10 people who received inducements from the party were actual NPP voters.
This suggests that nearly half of those who benefited from the NPP’s inducement efforts were not necessarily supporters of the party, raising questions about the effectiveness and targeting of such inducement strategies.
“This suggests that NPP inducement did not benefit their voters compared to NDC. The poll also shows that 87% of NPP voters who received inducement voted for DMB [Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia] while 85% of NDC voters who received inducement voted for JDM [John Dramani Mahama]”.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah further highlighted the decisive role played by floating voters in determining the outcome of the election.
He noted that data from his organization’s exit poll revealed a significant voting pattern among those who received inducements.
According to Dankwah, only 25% of floating voters who received inducements cast their ballots in favor of Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the NPP presidential candidate.
In stark contrast, a substantial 60% of those same floating voters voted for John Dramani Mahama, the NDC presidential candidate.
This stark difference in support underscores the pivotal influence of floating voters in closely contested elections, especially in scenarios where neither of the major political parties has a clear majority.
Dankwah emphasized that the voting decisions of this critical demographic often serve as the “tiebreaker,” effectively determining the ultimate winner.
NDC Benefits, NPP Yield Negative ROI
Furthermore, Mussa Dankwah noted that the data indicates that NDC supporters were the primary beneficiaries of the giveaways, which likely influenced their voting behavior since the NDC won both the presidential and parliamentary elections.
However, he noted that this also suggests that the NPP’s investment in such strategies did not yield positive results, leading to a negative return on investment for the party.
Dankwah highlighted the ineffectiveness of relying on last-minute incentives as a means of securing voter support.
“Majority of inducement went to young voters [and] majority of voters who collected the inducement were men. I hope they will learn that last-minute projects and money do not win elections in Ghana today. My NPP friends who distanced themselves from me during the campaign lost the chance to hear frank assessment of their chances”.
Mussa Dankwah
He also pointed out that, in the Greater Accra, Central, and Western regions, the NDC has claimed a significant majority, securing 64 out of the 74 available seats.
According to Dankwah, this represents a dominant 86% share of the seats in these key regions, further solidifying the party’s strong performance in the elections.
Meanwhile, the pollster expressed disappointment that some organizations carried out polls prior to the December election but lacked the courage to publish their findings.
He indicated that by withholding the results, these organizations failed to contribute to the democratic process, depriving the public of valuable insights that could have fostered greater transparency, informed decision-making, and a more engaged electorate.
Dankwah emphasized that publishing such data could have played a pivotal role in strengthening democracy and ensuring a more open and accountable electoral process. “I hope they don’t publish any polls they conduct in the future no matter the circumstances”.
