Reform UK is on track to secure a major victory in the upcoming Runcorn and Helsby by-election, according to a recent poll, despite ongoing internal disputes within the party.

The latest survey — the first since former Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigned after being convicted of assaulting a constituent — suggests Nigel Farage’s party could claim the North West seat from Labour.

This potential shift marks a significant moment in UK politics, highlighting Labour’s struggles under Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership.

Amesbury had previously secured the seat for Labour in July’s general election with 22,358 votes, while Reform UK trailed in second place with 7,662 votes.

However, with Labour’s approval ratings sliding since taking office, a Lord Ashcroft poll now indicates that Reform is projected to capture 40 percent of the vote, leaving Labour behind at 35 percent.

The result would be a major setback for Sir Keir, whose government has faced increasing criticism over economic stagnation and controversial policy changes, including the scrapping of winter fuel payments for millions of pensioners.

At the same time, it offers a much-needed boost for Mr Farage, as recent national surveys suggested Reform’s post-election momentum had begun to slow.

Labour’s Struggles Deepen Amidst Party Scandal

Labour’s fight to retain the seat has been further complicated by the circumstances of Amesbury’s departure. The former MP was given a 10-week suspended prison sentence last month after admitting to physically assaulting a constituent in an alcohol-fueled altercation.

The incident occurred on 26 October in Frodsham, Cheshire. After a night of drinking, Amesbury encountered 45-year-old Paul Fellows at a taxi rank. When Fellows confronted him about a bridge closure in the town, the situation quickly escalated.

CCTV footage captured Amesbury repeatedly punching Fellows, knocking him to the ground before continuing his assault in the street.

The former MP was heard shouting: “You won’t threaten your MP again, will you, you fucking soft lad?” The violent outburst ultimately led to his resignation, forcing Labour into a difficult by-election fight in a constituency where public trust had been shaken.

Reform UK’s Internal Turmoil

The by-election also comes amid leadership tensions within Reform UK. This week, Nigel Farage suspended MP Rupert Lowe, declaring there was “no way back” for him following a bitter internal dispute.

Lowe had openly criticized Farage’s leadership style, accusing him of exhibiting “messianic” tendencies. The conflict escalated when Reform UK announced an investigation into Lowe’s conduct, citing alleged “verbal threats” made against party chairman Zia Yusuf.

However, Lowe maintains that he is the victim of an orchestrated effort to oust him from the party. Despite the internal drama, the party remains well-positioned for a strong showing in the by-election.

In a bid to defend the seat, Labour has selected Karen Shore, a local councilor for Cheshire West and Chester, as its candidate. Sir Keir Starmer expressed confidence in her candidacy.

“Karen Shore will be a champion for the people of Runcorn and Helsby. She’s local and her experience as a teacher and serving the community as a councilor will give people a strong voice in the House of Commons.”
Keir Starmer

Reform UK Poised for Victory in By-Election — Keir Starmer

However, with Labour facing significant public discontent and the party’s poll numbers slipping, the race remains highly competitive. The outcome of the by-election could serve as an early indicator of Labour’s political trajectory under Starmer’s leadership and whether Reform UK can further disrupt the traditional two-party stronghold in British politics.