The European Union (EU) has cut its combined pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports by 18% between 2021 and 2024, tracking closely with a 20% slump in gas consumption, according to a new analysis from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).
The findings, released Wednesday via IEEFA’s EU Gas Flows Tracker, reflect a broader shift in the bloc’s energy dynamics as it pivots from fossil fuels toward renewables.
The report paints a mixed picture. While the EU has made substantial gains in reducing overall gas usage and diversifying its supply sources, its reliance on Russian gas has not entirely ended, with imports via Türkiye increasing in early 2025 despite the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine.
“EU countries’ reliance on gas pipeline imports and LNG shipments means they are exposed to geopolitical issues and supply disruptions.
“However, they have mitigated this dependence by curbing gas consumption, diversifying import sources, shifting gas flows and installing more renewables.”
Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead energy analyst for Europe at IEEFA
The 18% decline in gas and LNG imports is attributed primarily to a concerted reduction in gas demand across EU member states.
From 2021 to 2024, consumption fell by 20%, driven by a mix of energy-saving policies, rising energy efficiency, and accelerated adoption of renewable technologies and heat pumps.
This strategic demand-side reduction has enabled the EU to resist expanding gas infrastructure while still meeting energy needs.
Jaller-Makarewicz said that if the bloc maintains its course, it could eliminate the need for new gas import facilities altogether.
“Investing to accelerate renewable energy and heat pump installations will further boost the EU’s energy security and reduce the impact of volatile gas prices on businesses and households.”
Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead energy analyst for Europe at IEEFA
EU Shift Supply Sources in Q1 2025
Following the end of Russian gas transit via Ukraine on 1 January 2025, the EU experienced a short-term rise in LNG imports in Q1 2025.
However, overall gas and LNG imports remained relatively stable, registering a 1% year-on-year decline from Q1 2024 and holding flat compared to the same quarter in 2023.
The report highlighted that Norway has now emerged as the largest supplier, accounting for 30% of the EU’s gas and LNG imports in Q1 2025, followed by the United States (25%), Russia (14%), and Algeria (13%).
The significant role of Norway and the US signals a successful diversification strategy that gained momentum after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Yet, despite this progress, the EU’s energy system remains partially intertwined with Russian flows.
Russian Gas Still Flowing — via Türkiye
While transit through Ukraine has ended, Russian gas imports into the EU rose by 19.5% in 2024, largely due to increased shipments via Türkiye.
In the first quarter of 2025, Russian pipeline deliveries via Türkiye rose by 16% compared to the previous year.
This re-routing illustrates the complexity of fully phasing out Russian energy, even as political commitments intensify.
The EU is preparing to release a new energy roadmap on May 6, 2025, which will outline the bloc’s updated strategy for eliminating Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027.
“The new roadmap will be critical in defining how the EU balances geopolitical risks, energy security, and decarbonization.
“The IEEFA’s data tools are designed to help policymakers track these trends and adjust their strategies accordingly.”
Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead energy analyst for Europe at IEEFA
The IEEFA’s EU Gas Flows Tracker complements its existing LNG monitoring tools and provides granular, real-time insight into pipeline dynamics and cross-border gas movements.
It revealed how internal gas flows within the EU have shifted dramatically in the wake of reduced Russian dependence and changing demand profiles.
The tool will be updated regularly and is aimed at energy policymakers, analysts, and businesses navigating the evolving energy landscape in Europe.
The ongoing evolution of cross-border gas flows illustrates not only the challenges faced by the EU but also the resilience and adaptability inherent in its drive toward a sustainable and secure energy future.
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