Nigeria has recorded a breakthrough in its long fight against crude oil theft, with fresh data showing losses have dropped to their lowest level in more than a decade. Figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) revealed a 50.2 per cent reduction in crude oil losses in the first seven months of 2025.

According to a statement released by the Head of Media and Strategic Communications at the NUPRC, Eniola Akinkuotu, the country lost 2.04 million barrels of crude between January and July 2025, averaging 9,600 barrels per day. This is the lowest level since 2009, when daily losses stood at 8,500 barrels.

By comparison, Nigeria lost 4.1 million barrels in the whole of 2024, averaging 11,300 barrels per day. The figures also highlight a dramatic turnaround from 2021, when crude oil theft and pipeline sabotage pushed losses to a record 37.6 million barrels, averaging 102,900 barrels per day. The latest results amount to a 94.57 per cent reduction compared with the 2021 peak.

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The NUPRC said the improvement is the result of stronger regulatory oversight, improved security collaboration, and deeper community engagement.

“Between January and July 2025, crude oil losses were contained at 2.04 million barrels, averaging 9,600 barrels per day over the seven months. This marks a clear departure from the high-loss years that have long plagued the industry.”
NUPRC

The regulator noted that its metering audit initiative has been key to ensuring accurate measurement of production and exports, eliminating discrepancies that previously created room for manipulation. The Petroleum Industry Act of 2021 also provided a stronger framework for industry regulation, contributing significantly to the decline.

The 2021 figure dropped to 20.9 million barrels in 2022, averaging 57,200 barrels per day. By 2023, losses reduced further to 4.3 million barrels, at 11,900 barrels daily, and then fell again to 4.1 million barrels in 2024.

New Evacuation Routes To Curb Thefts

To consolidate these gains, the NUPRC, under the leadership of Chief Executive Gbenga Komolafe, has approved 37 new crude oil evacuation routes as part of efforts to address theft and pipeline vandalism. The commission said it has adopted both kinetic and non-kinetic measures.

“The commission has adopted a balanced mix of kinetic and non-kinetic strategies in tackling oil losses. On the kinetic front, we continue to work with security agencies, operators, and communities. On the non-kinetic front, we have tightened regulations and introduced strategic initiatives like metering audits across upstream facilities.”
Chief Executive Gbenga Komolafe

Industry players have welcomed the progress. In June 2025, the Executive Coordinator of the Independent Petroleum Producers Group, Oyeleke Banmeke, confirmed that crude oil theft had dropped significantly compared with levels recorded two to three years ago.

Banmeke praised President Bola Tinubu’s administration for prioritising security in oil-producing areas, particularly in the Niger Delta, which has historically been the epicentre of crude theft.

Analysts believe the reduction in oil losses is a strong signal for Nigeria’s petroleum sector, with the potential to boost investor confidence and strengthen government revenues at a time when fiscal pressures remain intense.