The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), an important U.S.-Africa trade deal of nearly 25 years, expired today, Tuesday, September 30, ending duty-free access to American markets for thousands of African products.
The deal, first enacted in 2000, allowed qualifying African nations to export a wide range of goods without tariffs, creating opportunities for industries ranging from textiles in Kenya to oil in Nigeria and Angola. Its expiration has raised alarm across the continent, with workers, business owners, and policymakers bracing for the fallout of higher tariffs and tougher competition.
Kenya has been one of AGOA’s success stories. The country’s textile and apparel industry thrived under the agreement, exporting brands such as Levi’s and Wrangler jeans to the U.S. For many firms, AGOA created the only pathway to compete with low-cost manufacturers in Asia.
“If AGOA goes away we have zero chance to compete with the Asian countries,” said Pankaj Bedi, owner of United Aryan, a Nairobi-based apparel manufacturer.
Kenya’s apparel exports to the U.S. have surged from $50 million at the start of AGOA to roughly $500 million today, providing more than 66,000 jobs, many of them held by women. Those jobs are now at risk.
Leaders Push For Last-Minute Negotiations
African leaders, particularly Kenyan President William Ruto, have called for urgent action. Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Ruto appealed directly to Washington.
“I will be asking for the U.S. to consider seriously renewing and extending AGOA for at least a minimum of five years. It is a platform that connects Africa and the U.S. in a very fundamental way.”
President William Ruto
For Kenya and other exporters, AGOA not only provided duty-free access but also shielded industries from sweeping tariffs of 10% or higher that the White House announced earlier this year. Kenyan firms, already weighed down by high energy costs, limited local supply chains, and expensive borrowing, fear they will be unable to withstand competition from Asian producers, even if some of those countries also face higher tariffs.
Public policy expert Raphael Obonyo warned that African governments must prepare for the possibility that Washington is no longer committed to trade pacts with the continent. “African countries including Kenya must be alive to the possibility that AGOA won’t be extended, AGOA won’t be remodified, and … America won’t be interested in having a trade pact,” he said.
Millions Of Jobs At Risk Across Continent
Aside from Kenya, oil exporters like Nigeria and Angola, South Africa’s auto industry, and smaller nations such as Lesotho and Eswatini all relied heavily on AGOA to sustain key industries. Researchers at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability cautioned that some economies could face “notable adverse effects” from the program’s expiration.
They added that while aggregate data may show limited macroeconomic disruption, such analysis “likely understates the full impact of new Trump-era tariffs and does not capture the indirect effects like reduced foreign investment, weakened supply chains, rising poverty, or the loss of capacity-building.”
AGOA-linked industries are estimated to employ 1.3 million people across Africa. In Kenya, where garment workers in Nairobi’s industrial zones have already voiced fears of layoffs, the end of the deal has sparked anxiety about livelihoods and the broader economy.
Despite efforts to renegotiate, African leaders are running against the clock. Ruto has said Kenya and the U.S. have made “good progress” toward a bilateral deal that could be finalized by the end of this year. But until such an agreement materializes, African exporters remain exposed to the harsh realities of global trade without the cushion of AGOA.
As the continent marks the end of a trade era, the uncertainty ahead underscores the fragile balance between opportunity and vulnerability in Africa’s economic partnership with the United States.
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