The latest data from the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) revealed that Ghana’s private sector saw an improvement in its growth outlook in October 2025 due to the stable Ghanaian Cedi and declining inflation that has characterized the economy over the past few months.
The PMI data from S&P Global represent factual indicators of global economic health based on monthly surveys of business executives covering 45 economies and 30 sectors. In October, the PMI increased from 49.8 in the previous month to 50.3, which reflected a move above the threshold that determines an expansion or contraction in business growth.
A PMI above 50 signifies economic expansion, while below 50 signifies contraction compared to the month prior. The PMI data anticipate changing economic and market trends and is a barometer for economic performance and business conditions. It uses 5700 indicators covering national and sector data to provide a rounded view of the health of global economies.
The business environment has shown a shift from the previous months’ trend, where, for the first time in four months, business conditions have improved. This marginal expansion will go a long way to affect confidence and investment in the private sector.
Business conditions have varied significantly and renewed interest and participation is projected to further increase in the coming months to crown a fairly performed economic performance year.
Inflation Push
The reduction in the general prices of goods, among others, caused an increase in demand for company products, boosting their sales and income. This contributed to the increase in the PMI, which expresses private sector expansion. Expansion seen in the business environment is expected to benefit customers through bonus package gifts to further increase purchases and business gains.
With the sustained macroeconomic stability for the greater part of 2025, demand for October increased faster compared to the increase in September. Companies were encouraged to increase input and output to match the growing demand while maintaining their inventory level. The inventory of the companies increases their stock accumulation for at least a year.
The data revealed that businesses marked an increase in employment, showing a consistent 9-month increase, except in April, where hiring dipped the most. Vacant positions were filled, and business activities were enhanced.
The declining inflation created a price change that built a favorable private sector in the country. With prices falling for six months in a row, customers were given discounts as the inflation levels softened the business environment.
In October, input costs, including staff costs and purchases costs, increased a little but at a slower rate than experienced in September. The staff cost change eased to tie the pace for April 2023. This means that, as cost of production declines, the variable costs, businesses were able to purchase more with the same budget and bring on board additional hands to boost production. While the cost of production declines, businesses increase their profit while expanding the economy through increased employment.
Currency Push
Though the country was jubilant about the appreciation of the currency, it affected people differently. While some met it favorably, others were disadvantaged by the appreciation. According to the PMI data, some respondents revealed that they experienced costs due to the fluctuations, and others revealed that they reduced prices because of the appreciation. The net effect showed a marginal cost inflation.
However, on the general, the Ghana Cedi appreciation positively impacted the economy. The appreciated Ghana Cedi improved company-vendor relationship as supplies and deliveries increased and quickened. The stable Cedi with decline in the rate at which general prices accelerate, reduces cost and inefficiencies.
Businesses and consumers would have to adjust to the changes to ensure that they benefit from the appreciated currency. Businesses can now predict and plan ahead as the currency remains fairly stable.
Regained Hope
The decline in inflation and appreciation of the Ghana Cedi still caused a slight decline in business confidence in October, but many (about 77%) respondents were hopeful that the business environment would further improve in 2026. Firms were also poised for growth in exchange rate and inflation since they are inevitable for a better economic outlook going forward.
According to Andrew Harker, the Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, the marginal expansion will set the pace for future expansions. As a result, he welcomed the October growth, claiming that it would make costs predictable and reduce uncertainty in future demands.
The survey collected data from approximately 400 private sector companies between October 9 and 29, 2025.
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