Ghana’s economic outlook remains firmly positive, even as recent data points to a moderation in growth during the third quarter of 2025.
According to Fitch Solutions, the temporary slowdown does little to derail the broader trajectory of the economy, with strong domestic demand, easing financial conditions and a rebound in investment expected to sustain momentum into 2026.
The UK based research firm projects that Ghana’s economic growth will remain robust over the medium term, with real Gross Domestic Product growth edging higher in 2026 despite the softer performance recorded in quarter three of 2025.
Growth Outlook Remains Solid Beyond 2025
Fitch Solutions expects Ghana’s economy to expand by 5.9 percent in 2026, up slightly from an estimated 5.8 percent in 2025. This projection is anchored on resilient household demand, supported by moderating inflation, declining interest rates and a more expansionary fiscal stance by government.
“We project economic momentum in Ghana to remain robust, with real GDP growth edging up from 5.8% in 2025 to 5.9% in 2026,” Fitch Solutions stated.
The firm noted that while headline growth softened in the third quarter, the underlying fundamentals of the economy remain intact, positioning Ghana for steady expansion in the coming years.
Q3 Slowdown Reflects Sector Specific Weaknesses
Data from the Ghana Statistical Service shows that economic growth slowed to 5.5 percent year on year in the third quarter of 2025, compared to 6.5 percent recorded in the second quarter. Fitch Solutions attributed this deceleration largely to weaker performance in the industrial sector.
“The latest data from Ghana Statistical Service shows that economic activity softened slightly in Q3, as growth slowed to 5.5% year-on-year from 6.5% in Q2.”
Fitch Solutions
Industrial growth fell sharply from 2.3 percent in the second quarter to just 0.8 percent in the third quarter. This decline was driven by a deeper contraction in mining and quarrying, alongside easing activity in the construction sector.
Services sector growth also moderated during the period. According to Fitch, services growth slipped from 9.6 percent to 7.6 percent as the rapid expansion in information and communications technology cooled, despite continued strength in domestic trade and transport.
“Services growth also moderated, slipping from 9.6% to 7.6%, as the ICT expansion cooled despite solid gains in domestic trade and transport,” the report stated.
Agriculture Emerges as a Bright Spot
In contrast to the slowdown in industry and services, the agricultural sector delivered a strong performance in the third quarter, providing an important cushion to overall economic growth.
Fitch Solutions highlighted that agricultural growth accelerated to 8.6 percent in the third quarter from 7.1 percent in the previous quarter. This improvement was supported by strong crop production and buoyant activity in the fishing industry.
“In contrast, growth in agriculture accelerated, rising from 7.1% in Q2 to 8.6% in Q3, supported by strong crop production and buoyant activity in the fishing industry.”
Fitch Solutions
The strong showing in agriculture underscores the sector’s continued importance to Ghana’s economic stability, particularly during periods of volatility in industry and services.
Fixed Investment to Drive 2026 Growth
In the near term, Fitch Solutions expects fixed investment to play a central role in sustaining Ghana’s growth momentum in 2026. The firm pointed to the Bank of Ghana’s aggressive monetary easing cycle as a key catalyst for renewed private sector activity.
According to Fitch, the central bank has already implemented 1,000 basis points worth of interest rate cuts since mid 2025. These reductions are expected to filter through to the real economy, supporting a recovery in private sector borrowing after three years of subdued credit growth.
The firm also expects improvements in the regulatory environment to bolster investor confidence. The anticipated implementation of the Public Private Partnership Act and the Corporate Insolvency and Restructuring Act is expected to strengthen protections for investors and lenders, encouraging greater capital formation.
Additionally, the recapitalisation of the National Investment Bank and the Agricultural Development Bank is set to enhance access to finance for small and micro enterprises, adding further momentum to private sector investment.
Fitch Solutions forecasts fixed investment growth of 10.0 percent in 2026, contributing 1.5 percentage points to overall economic growth.
Capital Spending Set for a Strong Rebound
Public sector capital expenditure is also expected to rebound sharply after a weak performance in 2025. Fitch noted that Ministry of Finance data shows development spending contracted by 48.3 percent in the first seven months of 2025.
However, the outlook for 2026 signals a dramatic turnaround. The government has allocated GH¢30.0 billion to the Big Push Infrastructure Programme, more than double the GH¢13.8 billion provided in the revised 2025 budget.
Major projects under the programme include the Accra Kumasi Expressway and the Eke Amanfrom Adawso Bridge. Fitch Solutions expects this renewed investment drive to provide a significant boost to construction activity and overall fixed capital formation.
Strong Fundamentals Support Medium Term Confidence
Despite the soft patch recorded in the third quarter of 2025, Fitch Solutions remains confident that Ghana’s economy is on a strong and sustainable growth path. With resilient household demand, easing financial conditions and a renewed focus on infrastructure and investment, the economy is well positioned to maintain momentum into 2026 and beyond.
For policymakers and investors alike, short term fluctuations have not altered Ghana’s broader growth story, which continues to be underpinned by improving macroeconomic stability and structural reforms.
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