Ghana’s oil and gas sector is poised for a rebound in 2026, with rising crude oil production expected to support export earnings and broader economic stability, according to Fitch Solutions.
In its latest report titled “2026 Outlook For Ghanaian Economy Remains Robust, Despite Quarter 3 2025 Slowdown,” the research firm projects renewed growth in upstream activity following a period of softer economic momentum in 2025.
Central to Fitch’s optimistic projection is the renewed activity at the Jubilee offshore oil field, Ghana’s flagship production asset. According to the report, drilling operations at Jubilee resumed in early November 2025 after a period of reduced activity, paving the way for a recovery in output levels.
“Our Oil & Gas team forecasts crude production to return to growth, reaching 5.1%, supported by drilling at the Jubilee offshore field, which resumed in early November.”
Fitch Solutions
The Jubilee field, which has historically accounted for a significant share of Ghana’s crude output, is expected to once again play a leading role in stabilising and expanding national production.
Fitch Solutions noted that while Ghana experienced a slowdown in the third quarter of 2025, the medium-term outlook remains positive, largely underpinned by improving performance in the energy sector.
The resumption of drilling activities and the addition of new production capacity are expected to lift crude output and strengthen export receipts at a time when foreign exchange inflows remain critical to macroeconomic stability.
New Production Well to Boost Output
In addition to resumed drilling, Fitch Solutions highlighted the importance of new production infrastructure coming onstream before the end of 2025.
The addition of the J73-P well is expected to enhance field productivity and offset natural decline rates associated with mature oil assets. “A second new production well (J73-P) will come onstream by end-2025,” Fitch said, noting that this development would further support the projected growth in crude output.
The combined impact of resumed drilling and new wells is expected to lift Ghana’s oil production growth to 5.1% in 2026, reversing recent stagnation and reinforcing the country’s export capacity.
Rising oil production is expected to have positive spillover effects across Ghana’s economy, particularly through improved export earnings.
Crude oil remains one of Ghana’s top export commodities, alongside gold and cocoa, and any sustained increase in output could strengthen foreign exchange inflows and help ease pressure on the cedi.
Fitch Solutions suggested that higher export volumes from the oil sector would support Ghana’s current account position and provide some buffer against external shocks.
This is especially significant given ongoing efforts by authorities to stabilise the currency, manage inflation, and restore investor confidence following recent economic challenges.
Outlook Remains Robust
Despite the slowdown recorded in the third quarter of 2025, Fitch Solutions maintained that Ghana’s overall economic outlook remains robust heading into 2026. The report suggests that improving oil output, alongside reforms in other sectors, could help sustain medium-term growth.
The anticipated recovery in oil production aligns with Ghana’s broader strategy to maximise value from its hydrocarbon resources while navigating the global energy transition.
While renewable energy and gas-to-power initiatives remain part of the long-term agenda, crude oil continues to play a pivotal role in export performance and fiscal planning.
Fitch’s outlook reinforces expectations that, if operational targets are met and global oil prices remain supportive, Ghana’s energy sector could once again become a key driver of economic resilience.
While the production outlook is positive, Ghana’s oil sector remains exposed to external risks, including global price volatility, technical challenges, and investment constraints.
Maintaining production growth will require sustained capital expenditure, efficient regulation, and stable contractual frameworks to attract and retain investors.
Nevertheless, the resumption of drilling at Jubilee and the commissioning of new wells signal renewed momentum.
Rising oil production is set to play a critical role in supporting Ghana’s exports and underpinning a more resilient economic performance in 2026 and beyond.
READ ALSO: Cedi Under Pressure in Short Term, Yet Fitch Sees Controlled 8% Fall in 2026
