UK Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, is facing mounting pressure over his political future, with Britain’s leading pollsters warning that his tenure as prime minister may be nearing its end as UK heads into crucial local government elections on Thursday, 7 May.
In an interview with a media outlet, prominent polling expert, Sir John Curtice suggested that, while Starmer may not be forced out immediately after the elections, his long-term position appears increasingly uncertain. “It’s a question of when and how, not whether,” Sir John said, adding that the likelihood of Starmer leading the Labour Party into the next general election is “very low indeed”.
The upcoming local government elections, which will see more than 5,000 council seats contested across England, are widely viewed as a major test of Labour’s standing under Starmer’s leadership.
Early projections suggest the party could face severe losses, with Lord Hayward warning of a “drastic” outcome in which Labour may lose more than 75% of the seats it is defending.
According to his assessment, Labour could lose as many as 1,850 council seats, while Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party is expected to make significant gains, potentially securing around 1,550 seats. The Green Party is also forecast to perform strongly, with an estimated 500-seat gain.
The upcoming elections come at a politically sensitive moment for the prime minister, who has faced sustained criticism over his handling of the Peter Mandelson scandal.
The controversy has fuelled growing unease within Labour ranks, with some MPs openly questioning Starmer’s leadership and ability to guide the party through a challenging electoral period.
Sir John Curtice noted that despite the bleak projections, Starmer may survive in the short term due to the absence of a clear successor. Potential alternatives such as Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner have been mentioned within party circles, but no consensus candidate has emerged.
He also warned that the elections could prove damaging not only for Labour but for the Conservatives, describing the contest as being at risk of becoming “the worst ever for both Labour and the Conservatives”.
Labour, he added, is particularly vulnerable in heavily pro-Leave regions in the North of England, where Reform UK is expected to gain ground.
However, Sir John Curtice suggested that Reform’s momentum may have softened slightly in recent weeks. He also cited shifting voter priorities, including rising concern over the economy, as well as the potential impact of Farage’s association with Donald Trump and competition from other right-wing parties.
Labour Faces Perfect Storm as Internal Pressure Mounts
Further analysis from polling experts suggests Labour is heading into the 7 May elections amid what has been described as a “perfect storm” of political and economic challenges, raising serious questions about the party’s electoral resilience and leadership stability.
Keiran Pedley, a pollster at Ipsos, has warned that the elections “promise to be really difficult” for Labour, pointing to a convergence of negative factors affecting voter sentiment.
“It does look like it’s going to be a disastrous night. Ipsos polling puts economic optimism at its worst on record, which goes back 48 years. We’ve got the Mandelson scandal alongside it, and because Labour is fundamentally defending so many seats, it does promise to be a really difficult night. One of the biggest challenges they’re going to face is in London, which is a new Labour heartland, and they’re facing challenges from Reform and the Greens there.”
Keiran Pedley
Despite the difficult outlook, Pedley cautioned against assuming Starmer’s immediate resignation, noting that leadership speculation can often outpace political reality. “Keir Starmer has been written off a few times in the last six months, and it’s quite common to look at the media commentary and think he’s definitely finished. It’s not inconceivable that he does survive because the fundamental question of who will replace him remains,” he said.
He also pointed out that, despite Starmer’s personal unpopularity, Labour still holds an advantage in direct comparisons with Reform UK, stating, “if you look at the polling, while he is very unpopular, if you present voters with a binary choice between a Keir Starmer-led Labour government and a Farage-led Reform, Ipsos polling shows that people prefer Labour, 40 to 31.”
Meanwhile, Jonathan Brash, Member of Parliament (MP) for Hartlepool, has indicated that he is fed up with the Starmer-led government.
“I am completely fed up to the back teeth of this psychodrama in Westminster, the own goals that are coming from the heart of this government. They just need to get a grip. I’m completely fed up about it, and I think it’s got to the point now where I genuinely think, as far as the prime minister is concerned, it’s not a case of if, it’s when, and I just think we need to get a handle on this.”
Jonathan Brash
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