The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has maintained its long-term outlook for robust global oil demand, saying it sees no peak in consumption through 2050 despite accelerating renewable energy deployment and more conservative forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In its 2026 World Oil Outlook, released on Thursday, the producers’ group forecast global oil demand to increase from 105.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 to 113.3 million bpd by 2030, before climbing further to 124.1 million bpd by 2050.
The latest outlook reinforces OPEC’s long-held position that the world is unlikely to see peak oil demand anytime soon, placing the organisation at odds with more conservative projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which expects demand to reach about 113 million bpd by mid-century.
The future is not one in which the world can choose some energies while disregarding others.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais, 2026 World Oil Outlook
Developing economies expected to drive demand
OPEC attributes the continued rise in oil consumption largely to population growth, rapid urbanisation, industrial expansion and increasing energy needs across developing economies.
According to the report, regions such as Africa, India, the Middle East and Latin America are expected to account for much of the increase in future energy demand as economic activity expands and access to electricity improves.
The organisation also noted that rising electricity consumption from emerging technologies, including data centres, will place additional pressure on global energy systems, requiring a broader mix of energy sources rather than reliance on a single technology.
While acknowledging the rapid growth of renewable energy, OPEC argued that renewables alone would not be sufficient to satisfy future energy demand.
Instead, it expects oil, natural gas and renewables to coexist within the global energy mix, with oil retaining the largest share even as renewable energy records the fastest growth rate.
Sharp divide with IEA outlook
The report highlights the growing divergence between OPEC and the IEA over the pace of the global energy transition.
While OPEC believes oil demand will continue expanding for decades, the Paris-based IEA has previously suggested global oil demand could peak before the end of this decade, with its latest long-term outlook placing demand at roughly 113 million barrels per day by 2050.
The gap of more than 11 million barrels per day between both organisations’ projections reflects fundamentally different assumptions about the future of electric vehicles, climate policies, industrial development and energy consumption in emerging economies.
OPEC argues that governments are increasingly prioritising energy security and affordability, leading to policy adjustments that are more supportive of continued oil consumption.
The organisation cited slower-than-expected electric vehicle adoption in parts of Europe, changing energy policies in the United States, and sustained economic growth across developing regions as factors supporting stronger long-term oil demand.
Investment remains central
To meet projected demand, OPEC estimates that the global oil industry will require US$17.7 trillion in cumulative investment between 2026 and 2050.
Of that amount, the organisation expects about US$14.5 trillion to be invested in upstream exploration and production, US$1.9 trillion in downstream refining, and US$1.3 trillion in midstream infrastructure such as pipelines, storage facilities and transportation networks.
The organisation has consistently argued that underinvestment in oil projects could threaten future energy security by creating supply shortages as demand continues to grow.
Outlook comes amid market uncertainty
The publication of the report comes during a period of heightened uncertainty for global oil markets.
Recent geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Israel and the United States disrupted crude exports from parts of the Gulf before a ceasefire helped ease supply concerns and pushed Brent crude prices lower.
At the same time, OPEC continues to navigate internal changes following the United Arab Emirates’ departure from the organisation earlier this year.
Despite recent market volatility, several members of the wider OPEC+ alliance, including Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq, are proceeding with previously announced production increases, signalling confidence that recent disruptions will not fundamentally alter long-term demand.
What it means for Africa
For African oil-producing countries, OPEC’s latest outlook reinforces arguments that hydrocarbons will continue to play a significant role in economic development even as the global energy transition gathers pace.
Countries including Ghana, Nigeria and Angola continue to pursue new investments in oil and gas while simultaneously expanding renewable energy capacity, reflecting a strategy that seeks to balance energy security, industrialisation and climate objectives.
For Ghana in particular, the report aligns with recent government messaging that the country’s energy transition should support economic growth rather than replace existing energy resources prematurely.
The outlook may also strengthen investor confidence in long-term upstream projects by suggesting that global oil markets will continue to require substantial production well beyond the next two decades.
At the same time, the contrasting forecasts from OPEC and the IEA underscore the uncertainty surrounding future energy markets.
While demand may continue growing in emerging economies, producers will also face increasing pressure to improve operational efficiency, reduce emissions and diversify their energy portfolios as climate policies evolve.
Ultimately, OPEC’s latest projections add another dimension to the ongoing debate over the world’s energy future.
Whether global oil demand continues climbing toward 124 million barrels per day by 2050, as OPEC predicts, or levels off much earlier as other forecasters suggest, will depend on the pace of technological change, government policy, investment decisions and the energy needs of fast-growing developing economies.
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