UNICEF has warned that up to 23.4 million additional children could be pushed into monetary poverty by the end of the year as the continuing conflict in the Middle East triggers a wave of economic shocks, driving up food and energy prices, disrupting global trade routes and placing unprecedented pressure on vulnerable families.

According to a recent UNICEF report, the conflict’s impacts reach far beyond the area, affecting millions of children in nations already dealing with poverty, food insecurity, and limited access to critical services.

Drawing on data from more than 167 countries, UNICEF discovered that rising costs associated with escalating hostilities, including disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, are limiting what families can afford to buy and putting children from the poorest households at risk.

According to the UN Children’s Agency, the crisis threatens to reverse years of progress in child poverty reduction, with conflict, inflation, and economic instability creating conditions that could leave millions of children without adequate food, healthcare, education, or protection.

UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell, indicated that,“children are paying the price for the escalating conflict in the Middle East, including children far beyond the region.”

“The longer this continues, the worse the consequences will be. Rapidly rising costs are making food and education unaffordable for many families. For children already living in poverty, these shocks deepen deprivation and can cause harm that lasts a lifetime.”
Catherine Russell

This assessment looked at two different economic scenarios based on how long and severe the conflict-related disruptions last.

Under the worst-case scenario, which assumes a modest economic shock, UNICEF predicts that an additional 18.3 million children will slip into financial hardship. However, in a more severe scenario with protracted disruptions, higher pricing, and deeper economic uncertainty, the figure might grow to 23.4 million youngsters by the end of the year.

UNICEF stated that the findings show how sensitive children are to global economic shocks, particularly in countries where households already spend the majority of their income on basic necessities and governments have few means to cushion the impact of rising costs.

The report highlights that increases in food and energy costs are directly reducing household purchasing power, while limited fiscal space in many countries is making it more difficult for governments to expand support programmes for struggling families.

Africa and Asia are expected to experience the largest increases in child poverty, together accounting for approximately 80 per cent of the projected global rise. UNICEF attributed this to existing high poverty levels, economic vulnerabilities and exposure to external disruptions.

In Africa, several countries are already experiencing the effects of higher fuel prices, rising transportation costs and increased pressure on humanitarian operations.

In Somalia, where millions of people are already facing a severe malnutrition crisis, fuel prices in Mogadishu more than doubled within days of the escalation in the Middle East. UNICEF noted that the increase has affected the cost of food, water, transportation and humanitarian assistance, making life more difficult for families already struggling to survive.

Ethiopia has also experienced economic consequences linked to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. According to the report, diesel prices have increased by 31 per cent, while humanitarian fuel costs have risen by between 50 and 70 per cent, creating additional challenges for aid organisations attempting to reach vulnerable communities.

In Nigeria, the economic impact has increased pressure on low-income households, many of which already spend 60-70 percent of their income on food and transportation. UNICEF warned that even little price rises might dramatically lower purchasing power and exacerbate poverty among families.

UNICEF Urges Governments to Shield Children From Economic Shocks

Beyond Africa, communities in Asia are also experiencing increased financial strain as household budgets are impacted by inflation and disruptions in global supply.

Families in Bangladesh are being further burdened by rising costs for staple foods like rice, lentils, cooking oil, veggies, fish, and poultry. According to UNICEF, these economic constraints could result in an additional 1.2 million people living in poverty.

The organisation warned that children are particularly vulnerable because poverty during childhood can have long-term consequences for physical development, education outcomes and future economic opportunities.

According to UNICEF, families experiencing financial hardship are often forced to make difficult choices between essential needs, including food, healthcare, education and child protection services.

The agency cautioned that prolonged economic stress could widen existing inequality gaps and make recovery more difficult for millions of children even after immediate crises ease.

According to UNICEF Executive Director, “the crisis is putting the lives and futures of children at risk.”

“If the world fails to act swiftly, the combined effects of conflict, economic instability and rising costs will push millions of children into deeper poverty. We could see hard-earned development gains unravel.”
Catherine Russell

To prevent a worsening child poverty crisis, UNICEF is calling on governments, international donors and financial institutions to take urgent measures to protect vulnerable households.

The agency is urging countries to safeguard domestic and international funding for essential services, including healthcare, nutrition programmes, education and child protection systems.

It is also calling for stronger social protection measures, including child-sensitive cash transfer programmes that can provide immediate support to families facing economic hardship. UNICEF stressed that such programmes should continue even as governments consider reducing subsidies or adjusting economic policies.

The organisation further recommended maintaining affordable access to essential goods and services through measures such as minimum spending protections that increase alongside inflation.

For countries facing severe financial constraints, UNICEF called for greater fiscal flexibility, including possible debt-service suspensions or restructuring where debt repayments exceed government spending on health, education and social protection.

Additionally, the organization called on governments to build more robust emergency preparedness mechanisms that prioritise children and can provide quick support in the event of future economic or humanitarian crises.

UNICEF cautioned that children in vulnerable households cannot afford more delays in international action, given the ongoing violence in the Middle East and the unpredictability of global markets.