Economist at the University of Ghana, Prof. Peter Quartey has cautioned government against settling for fiscal stability alone, warning that Ghana’s steady inflation and exchange rate figures mean little if the economy continues to expand without generating the jobs young people desperately need.
Speaking ahead of the 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review, Prof. Quartey said the country’s macroeconomic indicators had improved markedly, but argued that consolidation must now give way to deliberate action on employment, describing the current trend as growth without corresponding job creation.
Prof. Quartey acknowledged that inflation, the exchange rate and the fiscal deficit had all settled at reasonable levels in recent months, crediting government with achieving a measure of consolidation. But he insisted that stability was only useful as a launching point, not an end in itself.
“When you stabilize up to some point, you need to take off, just like an aircraft taxis on the runway before it takes flight, because there are a lot of people who don’t have jobs. We have jobless growth.”
Economist at the University of Ghana, Prof. Peter Quarte
Citing first-quarter 2026 figures published on the Ministry of Finance website, he noted that government spent far less than it had targeted, hitting 3.5 percent of GDP against a projected 4.9 percent, while revenue also fell short, with total revenue down 4.5 percent and tax revenue declining by 5.0 percent.
When Fighting Inflation Costs the Economy Jobs
Prof. Quartey argued that government’s success in pushing inflation down to around 3.5 percent, though impressive on paper, had come at a real cost to economic activity and job creation. He explained that the Bank of Ghana’s own medium-term target band sits at 8 percent, plus or minus 2 percent, meaning the current rate falls well outside what the central bank itself considers optimal for a developing economy.
“As you fight inflation to the very low level, you are basically also hurting economic activity, you are hurting jobs. There is a trade-off between inflation and unemployment, and we need to strike a delicate balance.”
Economist at the University of Ghana, Prof. Peter Quarte
He said empirical research supports inflation levels closer to 10 percent for developing countries like Ghana, arguing that some inflation signals healthy spending and economic activity. Pushing the rate down too aggressively, he warned, absorbs resources and effort that could otherwise support job-creating investment, without delivering proportional benefit to ordinary citizens.
Underspending Should Not Be Mistaken for Discipline
The economist pushed back against suggestions that the sharp underspending by government reflected sound fiscal discipline, arguing that missing an expenditure target by more than a percentage point was the opposite of restraint.
“Discipline is when you say I’m going to achieve this and then you stick to it. You target 4.9 and you spend 3.5, that is way below what you have targeted. I will not call that discipline.”
Economist at the University of Ghana, Prof. Peter Quarte
He linked the shortfall directly to visible service failures during the recent floods, noting that gutters went uncleared and waste collection suffered because ministries, departments and agencies lacked the resources to carry out their mandates. He said he was not surprised by the revenue dip, recalling a similar pattern after the previous government scrapped a batch of taxes in 2017, a sign, he said, that deeper reforms and efficiency gains remain unfinished business.
Redirecting Investment Beyond the Big Push
On where government should channel resources, Prof. Quartey welcomed the Big Push infrastructure programme but said its pace, particularly on road construction he had personally observed in Kumasi, fell short of expectations. He argued that the sharpest returns on investment would come from elsewhere.
He identified rail, manufacturing and agriculture as the sectors most capable of absorbing Ghana’s unemployed youth, and pressed government to spell out what incentives it was offering private investors in those areas.
On agriculture specifically, he pointed to irrigation as a glaring gap, noting the country’s continued reliance on onion and tomato imports from Burkina Faso despite that country’s investment in irrigated farmland. He also flagged weaknesses in the government’s poultry self-sufficiency drive, saying the policy concept was sound but its execution needed urgent correction in consultation with major poultry farmers.
Balancing Creditor Confidence With Citizens’ Needs
Addressing the Finance Ministry’s practice of settling external debts ahead of schedule, Prof. Quartey described the approach as a deliberate effort to restore investor confidence lost after the country’s post-pandemic default, likening the process to rebuilding trust after a personal betrayal.
He said the same seriousness applied to creditors should extend to funding key ministries, arguing that government’s job-creation promises would remain unfulfilled unless departments received the resources to execute programmes on the ground.
Turning to the flagship 24-hour economy initiative, the economist urged government to temper public expectations, noting that a functioning round-the-clock economy depends on infrastructure that cannot be built overnight, including reliable energy and water supply, adequate security and confirmed market demand.
He said some sectors could transition quickly while others might take three to four years, and warned that overpromising immediate results risked eroding public trust if delivery lagged behind rhetoric.
What Households Should Expect From the Review
Asked what ordinary Ghanaian families should watch for, Prof. Quartey said the mid-year statement should bring practical relief rather than technical jargon, pointing to pothole repairs using existing road maintenance machinery, measures to prevent a repeat of recent flooding, and stronger incentives for irrigation, manufacturing and poultry production.
He said government could not afford to present a review that left citizens feeling further squeezed, insisting the numbers must translate into visible improvement in everyday life.
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