A new analysis by Global InfoAnalytics Executive Director Mussa Dankwa suggests that floating voters, currently estimated at 18 percent of the voting population and still rising, could emerge as the decisive factor in Ghana’s 2028 presidential race, with early polling data revealing significant differences in how potential NDC candidates perform among this group compared to Dr Mahamudu Bawumia.
Mr Dankwa identified floating voters as a critical hurdle facing both leading NDC contenders as the party’s primary contest unfolds. “The 2028 race will present many hurdles that the main candidates would need to navigate but the big ones are the floating voters. Floating voters have been the dilemma for not just DMB but also Asiedu Nketia if he wins the NDC primaries,” he said.
He noted that this segment of the electorate, given its size and continued growth, could ultimately determine the outcome of the election regardless of which candidate secures the NDC’s nomination.
Asiedu Nketia and Ato Forson Both Lead Bawumia Overall
According to the poll, both potential NDC candidates currently hold leads over Bawumia among floating voters when measured in a straightforward head-to-head matchup, though by markedly different margins.
“According to the current poll, Asiedu Nketia leads Dr Bawumia by 11 points among floating voters while Ato Forson leads Dr Bawumia by 24 points in a match-up.”
Global InfoAnalytics Executive Director Mussa Dankwa
Mr Dankwa explained that a more granular analysis, examining floating voters based on whether they voted in 2024 and for whom, offers a clearer and more revealing picture of each candidate’s actual strength.
He argued that successful candidates must retain their party’s 2024 voters while simultaneously winning over the roughly two million eligible voters who did not cast ballots that year.
Asiedu Nketia Struggles to Retain 2024 NDC Voters
In a three-way scenario involving Asiedu Nketia, Bawumia and a Kennedy candidacy, though the latter is described as unlikely, the poll found troubling signs for Asiedu Nketia among voters who previously backed President John Dramani Mahama in 2024.
“Among floating voters, Asiedu Nketia wins 7% of floating voters who voted for DMB in 2024, 12% go to Kennedy and DMB retains only 77%. However, for floating voters who voted for JDM in 2024, Asiedu Nketia only retains 62%, a catastrophic performance for NDC, while 17% flee to DMB and 10% to Kennedy”.
Global InfoAnalytics Executive Director Mussa Dankwa
Among floating voters who did not participate in the 2024 election at all, the race under this scenario proved essentially tied. “Floating voters who did not vote in 2024, the race is tied as Asiedu Nketia attracts 30%, DMB 31% and Kennedy 25%. If Ken does not contest, then 25% will be up for grab,” he said.
Ato Forson Shows Stronger Retention Numbers
The picture shifted considerably when Dankwa examined Ato Forson’s performance against the same benchmarks. Among floating voters who backed Bawumia in 2024, Ato Forson managed to peel off a modest share.
“The story changes with Ato Forson. According to the poll, Ato Forson snatches 12% of DMB 2024 floating voters; Kennedy also snatches 12%, and DMB retains only 73%. For JDM’s 2024, Ato Forson retains 74%, but DMB also snatches 13%, and Kennedy grabs 7%”.
Global InfoAnalytics Executive Director Mussa Dankwa
Ato Forson’s strongest performance emerged among voters who sat out of the 2024 election entirely, a group Mr Dankwa identified as particularly decisive for the 2028 race. “Ato Forson has a clear and decisive lead among floating voters who did not vote in the 2024 elections, as he leads with 44%, DMB 25% and Kennedy 21%,” he said.
A Direct Comparison Between the Two NDC Contenders
Summarising the data, Mr Dankwa quantified precisely how much weaker Asiedu Nketia’s performance appears relative to Ato Forson across each category of floating voter examined in the poll.
“When the performance of the two NDC frontrunners is compared with DMB, the poll shows that Asiedu Nketia is performing 4% worse compared to Ato Forson among floating voters for Dr Bawumia in 2024. He drops 13% more of JDM 2024 floating voters’ vote, and underperformed by 14% among floating voters who did not vote in 2024”.
Global InfoAnalytics Executive Director Mussa Dankwa
Mr Dankwa closed his analysis with a pointed assessment of the challenge facing Asiedu Nketia should he emerge as the ruling National Democratic Congress’s candidate for 2028. “Asiedu Nketia must find a magic wand for floating voters,” he said.
What the Numbers Suggest for 2028
Taken together, the data presented by the Global InfoAnalytics Executive Director, Mussa Dankwa, paints a picture of two starkly different paths for the NDC depending on which candidate ultimately secures the party’s nomination.
While Ato Forson appears to retain the party’s existing 2024 support base more effectively and simultaneously make the strongest inroads among previously unengaged voters, Asiedu Nketia’s numbers suggest vulnerability on both fronts, retaining fewer of Mahama’s 2024 voters and also underperforming among the large bloc of citizens who did not vote in the last election.
Given that floating voters make up nearly a fifth of the electorate and continue to grow, these early figures suggest that the outcome of the NDC’s internal primary contest could carry significant consequences for the party’s competitiveness heading into the 2028 general election, particularly if Asiedu Nketia is unable to substantially improve his standing among this critical voter segment before the race intensifies.
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