Activity on Ghana’s secondary bond market weakened significantly during the week, with turnover falling by 28.56% week-to-week to GH¢1.56 billion as trading momentum softened across the market.
The decline highlights a quieter trading environment as investors appear to be becoming more selective about where they deploy available liquidity. Despite the lower overall turnover, activity remained concentrated around medium-to-longer-dated government securities, particularly bonds maturing between 2031 and 2034.
That segment accounted for 71.30% of total turnover during the review period, making it the dominant area of activity in the secondary market. The securities traded within this maturity range recorded an average yield of 13.93%.
The concentration suggests that investors continued to find value in longer-dated securities even as overall market activity contracted.
2031-2034 Segment Commands Investor Attention
The strong share of trading captured by the 2031-2034 segment stands out against the broader decline in turnover.
With more than seven out of every ten cedis traded in the secondary market linked to this maturity bucket, the segment remained central to investor activity during the week.
Its average yield of 13.93% also places it above the average yield recorded in the 2027-2030 segment, which contributed 23.05% of total turnover at an average yield of 12.37%.
Meanwhile, bonds with maturities beyond 2035 accounted for a smaller 5.65% of market turnover. These securities traded at an average yield of 15.34%, reflecting the higher yields associated with the longer end of the curve.
The distribution of activity shows that while trading volumes declined, investors continued to differentiate between securities based on maturity and yield.
September 2030 bond records fresh trading activity
The newly issued September 2030 bond also featured in the week’s trading activity, recording GH¢5.45 million in turnover at a weighted-average yield of 11.85%.
Although the amount represents a relatively small portion of total secondary market turnover, activity in the new bond provides an early indication of investor participation in the security following its introduction.
The 11.85% weighted-average yield also places the September 2030 bond below the average yields recorded across the 2031-2034 and post-2035 maturity segments.
Market participants will likely continue monitoring trading in the instrument as liquidity develops and investors adjust their portfolios around the new issue.
Month-End Rebalancing Could Revive Bond Trading
Despite the sharp weekly decline, Databank Research expects activity in the secondary bond market to improve modestly this week.
The anticipated improvement is linked to month-end portfolio rebalancing by fund managers, a period when institutional investors typically review their holdings and adjust asset allocations.
Such activity could provide some support to turnover after the market recorded a 28.56% decline during the previous week.
However, the expected recovery could remain limited because investors are also preparing for a major fundraising exercise by the Cocoa Processing Company of Ghana, COCOBOD.
Databank Research noted that liquidity could be redirected toward the programme as investors assess the new investment opportunity.
“However, we expect the upside to turnover to be capped as investors redirect some liquidity toward COCOBOD’s GH¢16.3bn issuance programme, with book building running from 28-29 September”, it added.
COCOBOD’s GH¢16.3bn Programme Changes Liquidity Dynamics
COCOBOD’s GH¢16.3 billion issuance programme is set to become a major consideration for investors as the month draws to a close.
The programme comprises GH¢2.3 billion of five-year senior unsecured amortising bonds and GH¢14.0 billion of 270-day commercial paper.
Book building is scheduled for September 28-29, with allotment expected on September 30 and issuance on October 1, 2026.
The size of the programme means that institutional investors may have to make careful decisions about how much liquidity to allocate between existing government securities and the new COCOBOD instruments.
That competition for available funds could limit the extent to which secondary bond market turnover rebounds, even if month-end portfolio adjustments generate fresh trading activity.
Bond Investors Balance Yields and Liquidity
The latest figures paint a market where investors are still active but are increasingly balancing yield opportunities with liquidity considerations.
The dominance of the 2031-2034 maturity segment shows continued interest in longer-dated securities, while the relatively smaller contribution from post-2035 instruments suggests that investors remain selective despite their higher average yields.
At the same time, the September 2030 bond’s 11.85% weighted-average yield offers another reference point for investors assessing opportunities across the maturity curve.
The coming days could therefore provide a clearer indication of whether month-end rebalancing will be enough to lift secondary market activity.
With COCOBOD’s GH¢16.3 billion programme competing for investor liquidity, the bond market enters the final days of September with several competing forces shaping trading activity.
Whether turnover can regain some of the ground lost during the week will depend largely on how fund managers reposition their portfolios and how investors respond to the sizeable COCOBOD issuance.
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