The Ghanaian cedi could end 2026 around GH¢13 to the US dollar despite renewed global pressures, rising oil prices and increased demand for foreign exchange ahead of the Christmas shopping season, according to financial market expert and President of Women in Forex Ghana, Ms Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah.
In an interview with Vaultz News, Ms Annor-Sika Asantewah offered her interpretation of the cedi’s recent weakness, the strengthening US dollar and the seasonal demand pressures expected to emerge as businesses increase imports ahead of December.
Her projection comes at a time when the Bank of Ghana has acknowledged that tighter global financial conditions and a stronger US dollar are weighing on emerging market currencies, including the cedi.
Global Dollar Strength Creates Fresh Pressure
The analyst explained that the cedi’s recent performance cannot be viewed in isolation from developments in international financial markets.
“The cedi is operating in a very difficult global environment. We have a stronger US dollar, elevated geopolitical uncertainty, higher energy prices and expectations around US interest rates. All of these factors naturally create pressure on emerging market currencies and Ghana is no exception.”
Ms Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah
According to her, investors tend to reassess their exposure to emerging market assets when global financial conditions tighten.
She noted that the Middle East conflict has added another layer of uncertainty by disrupting trade flows and contributing to higher energy prices.
“When oil prices rise sharply, countries that depend heavily on imported petroleum products require more foreign exchange to settle those import bills. That creates an additional demand for dollars, and Ghana is not insulated from that process.”
Ms Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah
Brent crude, which was above $85 per barrel at the previous Monetary Policy Committee meeting in July, had risen to approximately $99.38 per barrel. The increase has coincided with depleted global inventories, leaving markets more vulnerable to further supply disruptions.
Ms Annor-Sika Asantewah said the combination of oil prices and global dollar strength could keep the cedi under pressure in the short term. “Energy costs are particularly important because they affect the foreign exchange requirements of the economy,” she explained.
Christmas Imports Could Intensify Dollar Demand
The approaching festive season is another factor expected to influence the foreign exchange market.
Businesses typically increase imports ahead of Christmas as retailers stock up on consumer goods to meet higher seasonal demand. That can translate into stronger demand for US dollars.
“Christmas is always an important period for the foreign exchange market because businesses begin positioning themselves ahead of increased consumer activity. Importers need dollars, and when several businesses are seeking foreign exchange at the same time, the pressure on the local currency can become more visible.”
Ms Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah
The cedi depreciated by 1.86% in July after appreciating by 3.30% in June. Market data also showed further depreciation through August, with week-to-date and month-to-date losses of 0.52% and 1.66%, respectively.
The year-to-date depreciation stood at 8.06% based on the latest figures provided.
The expert, however, argued that seasonal demand should not automatically translate into a prolonged currency crisis.
“We should distinguish between temporary demand pressure and a fundamental deterioration in the currency. Christmas-related import demand can create volatility, but it does not necessarily determine where the cedi will finish the entire year.”
Ms Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah
BoG Intervention Remains Important
The Bank of Ghana injected $2.01 billion into the foreign exchange market in June, a move that supported the cedi’s appreciation during the month.
Ms Annor-Sika Asantewah said the central bank’s capacity and willingness to manage disorderly conditions could remain an important factor in determining the cedi’s trajectory.
“The Bank of Ghana has already demonstrated that it can provide liquidity when market conditions become particularly tight. That does not mean the central bank should attempt to eliminate every movement in the exchange rate. Rather, the objective should be to prevent disorderly market conditions.”
Ms Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah
She added that allowing the exchange rate to respond to market conditions while providing liquidity when necessary could help the market absorb temporary shocks.
The BoG has maintained that the latest exchange rate movements are within normal market developments and expects the cedi to remain relatively stable during the remainder of 2026.
Why GH¢13 Remains Possible
Despite the various pressures, Ms Annor-Sika Asantewah maintained her year-end projection of approximately GH¢13 to the US dollar.
“My expectation is that the cedi can still end the year around GH¢13 to the dollar. I am not suggesting that we will not see periods of depreciation between now and December. There could be significant volatility, particularly when import demand increases. But the year-end rate should reflect the broader balance of foreign exchange supply and demand rather than one difficult month.”
Ms Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah
She pointed to the potential influence of foreign exchange inflows, central bank market operations and improved market confidence as factors that could support the currency.
In her assessment, the cedi’s trajectory will depend on whether foreign exchange inflows can sufficiently offset demand from importers, energy companies and other businesses. “GH¢13 is achievable if the market receives adequate dollar liquidity and external pressures do not intensify significantly,” she said.
Oil Prices Remain a Major Risk
The expert nevertheless identified crude oil prices as one of the biggest risks to her projection.
“The oil price is one variable I would watch very closely. If crude remains close to $100 per barrel or moves materially above that level, Ghana’s import-related dollar demand could remain elevated. That would make the path toward GH¢13 more challenging.”
Ms Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah
She added that geopolitical developments could quickly change the outlook.
“The Middle East situation introduces an uncertainty premium into global markets. Any major escalation that affects energy supply or shipping routes could strengthen the dollar further and place additional pressure on emerging market currencies.”
Ms Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah
At the same time, she cautioned against assuming that every global shock would automatically result in a sustained cedi decline.
Market Volatility Could Persist Into December
With Christmas approaching, the financial market expert expects businesses and investors to remain sensitive to movements in the exchange rate.
“I would expect volatility to remain part of the market story through the final quarter. Importers will be watching the dollar closely, while investors will be assessing global interest rates, oil prices and domestic foreign exchange liquidity.”
Ms Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah
She advised businesses with substantial dollar obligations to manage their exposure rather than waiting until the last moment to obtain foreign exchange. “Currency risk management becomes particularly important when the market is experiencing sharp movements,” she noted.
Ms Annor-Sika Asantewah ultimately maintained that the cedi’s recent weakness should be interpreted within the broader global and domestic market environment.
“The cedi is under pressure, but pressure does not automatically mean collapse. The currency has to contend with global dollar strength, oil prices and Christmas import demand, but there are also forces that can provide support. If those supporting factors hold, I still see room for the cedi to finish 2026 around GH¢13 to the dollar.”
Ms Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah
As Ghana enters the final quarter of the year, the exchange rate will therefore remain closely tied to global financial conditions, energy prices, foreign exchange liquidity and the strength of seasonal import demand. The coming months could determine whether the cedi’s recent depreciation becomes a sustained trend or remains a period of heightened market volatility before the year closes.
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