Ghanaian farmers could benefit from easing fertiliser prices in 2027 as the World Bank projects a 12 per cent decline in international fertiliser prices, following an estimated 14 per cent increase in 2026.
The forecast offers a potential reprieve for Ghana’s agricultural sector, which depends significantly on imported fertiliser to support crop production. However, the extent to which the projected reduction will translate into lower prices for farmers will depend on procurement arrangements, exchange rate movements, shipping costs and the efficiency of domestic distribution.
The outlook comes at a time when global fertiliser markets are recovering from significant supply disruptions, including tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, which contributed to higher prices earlier in 2026.
“International fertiliser prices will decline by 12 per cent next year, after rising by an estimated 14 per cent in 2026.”
World Bank
Global Market Shows Signs of Recovery
According to the World Bank’s commodity price outlook, the anticipated decline reflects improving supply conditions, easing input costs, recovering exports and increased production from suppliers outside the Gulf region.
The global fertiliser price index recorded a 22 per cent decline in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the preceding quarter, followed by a further reduction in October. This marked a reversal of the sharp increases associated with disruptions to international supply routes.
Despite the recent decline, the projected 14 per cent increase in the average price for the full year indicates that the earlier price surge continues to influence the annual outlook.
The distinction is important because a decline in quarterly prices does not necessarily mean that fertiliser purchased by importers and distributors has immediately become cheaper.
Furthermore, the projected 12 per cent reduction represents an average across the international fertiliser market. Individual products, including urea, phosphate and potash, may experience different price movements depending on their production costs, supply availability and demand.
Consequently, farmers using different fertiliser blends and crop-specific inputs may not experience identical reductions.
The World Bank has also cautioned that the risks surrounding its forecast remain largely tilted towards higher prices.
“The Bank says they ‘remain tilted to the upside, with renewed Middle East conflict, shipping disruption or export restrictions capable of reversing the expected decline.”
World Bank
This warning highlights the vulnerability of global fertiliser supply chains to geopolitical developments and disruptions in major trading routes.
Ghana’s Import Exposure Raises Concerns
International price outlook carries significant implications because the country relies on imported fertiliser to sustain agricultural production.
Data from the 2025 Ghana Fertilizer Statistics Overview indicate that Russia accounted for 32 per cent of Ghana’s fertiliser imports in 2024, making it the country’s largest supplier. Italy followed with 17 per cent, while China contributed 14 per cent.
Together, these three countries supplied 63 per cent of Ghana’s fertiliser imports, while approximately 94 per cent of total imports originated from 11 countries.
The figures demonstrate the country’s exposure to external supply conditions, including export restrictions, production disruptions, changes in international demand and transportation costs.
“About 94 per cent of imports came from 11 countries,” according to the 2025 Ghana Fertilizer Statistics Overview.
Since fertiliser is largely traded internationally in foreign currencies, depreciation of the cedi could offset some of the benefits arising from declining global prices.
Other factors, including freight charges, marine insurance, port handling, storage and domestic distribution margins, could further influence the final cost of fertiliser at the farm gate.
This means that international price reductions must be supported by effective procurement and distribution arrangements before farmers can experience meaningful relief.
Procurement Key to Delivering Relief
The projected improvement in the global market presents an opportunity for Ghana to strengthen its fertiliser procurement strategy ahead of the 2027 farming season.
Timely procurement, diversification of supply sources and improved coordination between importers, distributors and agricultural authorities could help reduce exposure to sudden international price increases.
Government agencies responsible for agricultural inputs will also need reliable market information to guide purchasing decisions and ensure that fertiliser supplies are available ahead of critical planting periods.
Also, waiting until global prices decline before making procurement arrangements could expose farmers to shortages or higher prices if international conditions deteriorate unexpectedly.
A transparent monitoring of import costs, domestic prices and distribution channels would also help establish whether reductions in international prices are being passed on to farmers.
Government interventions, where necessary, should prioritise farmers and agricultural production areas facing the greatest affordability challenges.
“The test will be visible not in the global index but in local availability, affordability and use.”
World Bank
Beyond input affordability, the potential reduction could have implications for food production and household expenditure.
Fertiliser is a significant component of agricultural production costs, and lower prices could improve farmers’ ability to maintain appropriate nutrient application.
The country’s ability to translate favourable international market conditions into accessible and affordable fertiliser will ultimately determine whether the projected reduction delivers meaningful benefits to farmers and the wider economy.
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