Contrary to the popular sentiment in the public space, recent data released by Global Analytics, a polling firm, there was a significant Akan presence in Ghana’s main opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC).
Hitherto, in some political quarters and amongst a few analysts, the assertion was that NDC as a party was dominated by Northerners and people from the Volta Region; while the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) is seen as an Akan-dominated party.
Interestingly, the NPP is going into the election with a northern candidate in the person of Vice President Alhaji Mahamudu Bawumia. The election is probably a northern affair, both NDC and NPP have presented candidates with northern backgrounds as their flagbearers.
Although Ghana is a multi-party democracy, it has a de facto two-party system. Since 1992, power has rotated between the NPP and its main rival the NDC. While this is the first time that NPP is fronting a northern Candidate, it has in the past had a northern Vice President; Alhaji Aliu Mahama.
NDC on its part went into the 2012 election with its current flagbearer, John Dramani Mahama as their candidate. The reason behind this whole regional mix and permutations is the need for some regional and general inclusivity.
The details
In its survey, Global Info Analytics revealed that NDC has a whopping 43% of its support base among the Akan ethnic group and 7.9% from the Northern region. Looking at the regional breakdown, this is significant.
In addition to the 7.9% stated for the northern region, the survey outlined the following for other regions of the North; Upper West region 3.9%, Upper East 3.2%, North East 1.9 and Savannah region 3.9%.
This gives us a final figure of 20.2% and according to the firm, the argument is that given this fact, the Akans had a strong voice in determining who becomes the party’s running mate. Before her nomination, Professor Jane Naana Opoku Agyeman enjoyed a commanding lead having been running in the 2020 Presidential election.
To buttress its claims, Global Info Analytics revealed that the swing regions of Greater Accra, Central, and Western Region account for 42% of the voting bloc. This for it is the reason for choosing Prof. Opoku Agyeman once more.
Shocking facts
Perhaps the most surprising revelation, if not shocking though, is the fact that the survey shows that 1.9% and 8.5% votes of NDC emanate from the Oti and Volta regions respectively. Cumulatively, they represent a paltry 10% for a party that is seen as a champion of Voltarian interests.
From the detail, the NDC fares better in the swing regions than its purported “Vote Bank”. Could this be one of the reasons why NDC’s performance in the region during the 2016 election was not a good showing?
In their postmortem reports, a few political analysts had attributed the party’s poor showing in the region as a probable reason why its national performance was not so bright.
Looking at these figures from both the Volta and Oti regions, one may be tempted to ask if it is a new trend or an old, overlooked fact just being made known by the Global Info Analytics survey.
The Potential Impact
This revelation would have a strong impact on how both parties would strategize going into the December elections. What is not clear, is if these findings would influence how the governing NPP chooses its running mate since it is yet to do so.
Again, it is difficult to ascertain how the demise of John Kumah, the member of Parliament for Ejisu Constituency and a deputy Minister of Finance would shape that contest in the NPP. Before his sudden death, he was one of those few names that popped up when the running mate issue in the New Patriotic Party came to the fore.
Ultimately, it may also be difficult to understand how the electorates and the public would use these revelations to make their demands from the political elites once the campaigns begin properly.
Regardless of what happens or who wins the election, these findings could have a lasting impact on Ghana’s political map beyond the 2024 polls.
READ ALSO: Anti- LGBTQ Bill, Government Cannot Be Excused – CDD Boss
