Global gas demand is expected to recover its 2019 level but with high uncertainties regarding the recovery trajectory of fast-growing markets compared with other regions. The forecast expects global natural gas demand to grow by 2.8 percent in 2021.
According to the report, this forecast is based on two main caveats. First, the fact that all regions are not equal when it comes to gas market recovery.
While demand dropped in 2020, with a chunk of the burden borne by mature markets. This year, emerging markets will be the main drivers of demand growth. Fast-growing markets in Africa, Asia, Central and South America and the Middle East are projected to account for about 70% of global demand growth in 2021. Mature markets are likely to see a more gradual recovery though some may remain below their 2019 demand levels.
Second, the fact that sectoral pillars of growth are all subject to major uncertainties features in the forecast. Gas burn in power generation is expected to be hampered by slow electricity demand growth and increasing inter-fuel competition as gas prices recover from their 2020 lows. Gas consumption in the industry is strongly dependent on economic recovery, especially for Asia’s export-driven industries.
Global gas markets experienced an estimated drop in demand of 2.5 percent year-on-year in 2020― its largest fall on record. Amid this slowdown, gas demand for power generation remained resilient as a result of fuel switching, while the whole supply chain showed strong flexibility in adjusting to demand variations.
Accordingly, Gas trade globalization progressed with increasing liquidity, while prices experienced historical low and extreme volatility. Also, the Covid-19 crisis and a well-supplied market put investment on hold, whereas gas market reforms and clean gas policy initiatives gained momentum in major consuming markets.
2021 began with rise in prices in Asia and Europe as demand tightened supply, but the price hikes are not expected to gradually decline in the short term, given that market fundamentals for 2021 remain fragile. Sectoral demand, on the other hand, is likely to be affected by a variety of risk factors including fuel switching, slow industrial rebound or milder weather.
Rather than a single event, the recent spike reflects a combination of supply and demand factors. Between mid-December 2020 and early January 2021, LNG demand in northeast Asia increased by 10 percent year-on-year due to colder than average winter temperatures, exacerbated by lower nuclear availability in Japan.
According to the report, colder temperatures in December 2020 began influencing increases in gas prices amid tightening Liquefied and Natural Gas (LNG). Spot LNG prices in Asia more than tripled to above $30/MBtu (NB: MBtu- one million British thermal unit) by the start of January 2021.
After an unprecedented drop in natural gas demand 2020 closed with a rapid recovery in gas prices as a rise in winter demand tightened supply. A similar pattern held in the first weeks of 2021 saw prices in Europe increase and spot LNG prices in Asia broke historical records. This tight market episode was driven by short-term factors, whereas the fundamentals remain uncertain and potentially challenging for global gas demand recovery in 2021.
Thus, global gas demand recovery is subject to a variety of risk factors including fuel switching, slow industrial rebound and mild weather which can moderate consumption.
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