According to Mussa Dankwah, founder of Global InfoAnalytics, the current polls suggest a challenging outlook for the NPP in both parliamentary and presidential elections.
He noted that the breakaway parties, Movement for Change and the New Force are likely to intensify the pressure on the ruling party in their strongholds and in the Ashanti and Eastern regions, potentially exacerbating the NPP’s struggles, as indicated by the polls.
Dankwah cited recent polls from key constituencies – Okaikwei Central, Okaikwei South, Anyaa Sowutuom, and Trobu – as further evidence of the significant challenges confronting the ruling NPP, with the data highlighting the extent of the party’s struggles in these areas.
“In what should have been safe seats for the ruling party in the Greater Accra region, the poll shows that only Okaikwei Central is outside the danger zone in terms of swing for the parliamentary seat. Anyaa Sowutuom is just on the borderline with Okaikwei South in real danger alongside Trobu, which records one of the largest margins for the party in the region in previous elections”.
Mussa Dankwah
Furthermore, Dankwah indicated that the polls show John Dramani Mahama leading in all four constituencies, with a significant advantage in Okaikwei Central and Okaikwei South that exceeds the margin of error, indicating a high probability of the NDC capturing these seats if elections were held today.
However, Dankwah pointed out that in Anyaa Sowutuom and Trobu, John Dramani Mahama’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error, indicating a tight race in these constituencies, where the outcome could swing either way, making them too close to call.
Dankwah also observed that the data reveals a significant trend across all constituencies, where the ruling party’s presidential candidate is consistently underperforming compared to the party’s parliamentary candidates.
“Thus voters are splitting the ticket, in what is locally called ‘skirt and blouse’ voting”. – Mussa Dankwah
25% of Akufo-Addo’s Supporters Switch to Mahama
Furthermore, Mussa Dankwah indicated that the poll reveals a significant shift in voter allegiance, with approximately 25% of those who supported President Nana Akufo-Addo in the 2020 election now switching their support to opposition leader John Mahama, a notable defection that could impact the election’s outcome.
Likewise, Dankwah’s analysis reveals a notable drop in voter loyalty within the ruling party’s traditional strongholds, with only 56% of those who previously voted for President Akufo-Addo indicating their intention to support the party’s candidate in the upcoming December 2024 elections.
Dankwah’s analysis also shows that among the President’s former voters in the ruling party’s strongholds, 2% plan to defect to Alan Kyerematen, another 2% will switch to Nana Kwame Bediako of the New Force, 6% are still undecided, and a significant 9% have opted out of voting altogether.
However, Dankwah indicated that the poll shows remarkable loyalty among opposition NDC voters, with a vast 95% planning to re-elect their candidate, John Mahama, whereas a tiny 5% are willing to switch to the ruling party’s candidate.
Additionally, he noted that a small fraction of NDC voters intend to vote for Alan Kyerematen (1%), are undecided (2%), or will abstain from voting (1%).
“Can the ruling party’s candidate make up for the loss from voters who did not vote in the 2020 election? The poll does not provide any good news either as 22% of those voters intend to vote for the opposition candidate, 10% for the ruling party, 1% for Alan, and 5% for Nana Kwame Bediako. 25% say they are undecided and 37% say they will not vote”.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah opined that in an election where economic and employment issues are set to take center stage, political parties must not only propose solutions to these pressing problems but also demonstrate unity and cohesion, as voters will be looking for a show of strength and stability in addition to policy promises.
“Anything short will not be good enough”. – Mussa Dankwah
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