According to Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, in the Ahafo region, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia is leading John Mahama by 58% to 39% overall.
However, among first-time voters, Dr. Bawumia’s lead is significantly larger, at 73% to 27%. In contrast, among older voters, his lead narrows to 55% to 41%.
Dankwah noted that if first-time voters do not turn out on election day, Dr. Bawumia’s challenges could intensify, making the race in the region much closer.
He emphasized that first-time voters are often the least reliable group when it comes to turnout in elections, urging political parties to exercise caution if they plan to rely on this demographic to secure victory.
“In the Ashanti region, overall, Dr. Bawumia leads with 66%, John Mahama, at 22%, AKK, at 4%, and NKB, at 7%. Among first-time voters, John Mahama is at 16%, Dr. Bawumia, at 69%, AKK, at 3%, and Nana Bediako, 12%. However, among older voters, JDM is 24%, DMB, 66%, AKK, 4%, and NKB, 5%.
“Nana Bediako’s performance in the region relies on the younger voters and if they fail to show up, then expect JDM to rise relatively as he overperforms among older voters, though DMB will also benefit slightly as his overall performance in the region is identical to his share of votes among the older voters”.
Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics
The pollster further indicated that in the Eastern region, where Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia has experienced the most significant decline compared to the last poll.
According to him, Dr. Bawumia currently leads with 42%, followed by John Mahama at 36%, Alan Kyerematen at 7%, and Nana Bediako at 12%.
Among first-time voters, the figures show Mahama at 34%, Bawumia at 38%, Kyerematen at 9%, and Nana Bediako at 17%.
He noted that among older voters in the Eastern region, the race is nearly identical, with Mahama at 38%, Bawumia at 43%, Kyerematen at 6%, and Amissah-Arthur at 11%.
Dankwah added that in the North East region, where Bawumia is expected to perform strongly, the competition is alarmingly close, with him leading at 52% compared to Mahama’s 45%.
He pointed out that among first-time voters, the situation is even more concerning, as Mahama leads with 75%, while Bawumia has 13% and Kyerematen has 12%.
Among older voters, Mahama stands at 43%, while Bawumia leads with 55%.
According to Dankwah, although Bawumia is likely to win in the North East region, the margin may not be as comfortable as the polls suggest.
Poll Outcome Implications for Election Campaign
Furthermore, Mussa Dankwah noted that the implications of the outcome of the polls for the election campaign are significant.
Dankwah indicated that the polls indicate that the NPP may face larger challenges in the Eastern region than they previously anticipated.
He explained that having closer races in several areas where they should ideally be leading comfortably means that resources will need to be distributed across multiple fronts, potentially stretching the campaign thin.
“JDM usually outperforms his polling numbers as we have seen from historical data, and as my colleague Sal Nsiah and many agree, he is like Trump, he always overperforms the polls. Will that hold true again this year?
“For Nana Kwame Bediako, his coalition of voters is the high-risk category, first-time and young voters. He has to keep them engaged and enthusiastic till voting day and then get them out to vote, if he fails to do so, he will fizzle out on the election day”.
Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics
Dankwah further pointed out the potential benefits for John Mahama if Nana Kwame Bediako fails to gain traction in the polls.
The pollster indicated that according to the polling data, Mahama is likely to secure nearly 60% of the support from those backing Bediako.
Dankwah reiterated that these voters, predominantly young, are reluctant to disclose their party affiliations and largely believe that Ghana is moving in the wrong direction.
He emphasized that this clarifies the polling numbers and provides data-driven evidence for why Mahama is leading in the polls, suggesting that he has a greater than 80% probability of winning decisively.
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