Mussa Dankwah, the Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, has provided insights into the voting patterns of first-time voters in some regions during the recent elections.
According to Dankwah, a significant 89% of first-time voters in the region cast their ballots in favor of Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the Vice President and running mate for the New Patriotic Party (NPP).
In contrast, only 10% of first-time voters supported John Dramani Mahama, the candidate for the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
Dankwah further highlighted that 18% of the total electorate in the Ashanti region consisted of first-time voters, which helps explain why Dr. Bawumia received such overwhelming support from this group.
According to him, the high proportion of first-time voters, combined with their strong preference for Bawumia, played a crucial role in his success in the region.
“In the Greater Accra, John Mahama and Dr. Bawumia were nearly tied, 48% to 46%. In the Central region, 68% of first-time voters voted for John Mahama while 23% voted for Dr. Bawumia.
“In the Western region, 58% to 24%. In the Eastern region, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia won 50% to 38%. In the Northern region, Dr. Bawumia won 64% to 33%. In the Volta region, John Mahama won 49% to 21%”.
Mussa DankwahMussa Dankwah
Dankwah further revealed that the data indicates that the upcoming 2028 election could see a fierce contest for first-time voters, as their numbers are projected to be considerably larger than they were in the 2024 election.
He emphasized that the size and influence of this demographic will likely play a pivotal role in shaping the outcome of the next election.
As first-time voters increasingly represent a substantial portion of the electorate, political parties will likely focus more on engaging and appealing to this group in order to secure crucial votes.
This shift in voter dynamics could make the battle for first-time voters a defining factor in the 2028 election.
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Furthermore, Mussa Dankwah explained that while it is true that many voters chose to abstain from participating in the recent elections, a significant trend emerged among those who had previously voted for Nana Addo in 2020 and decided to vote again.
He indicated that of these returning voters, 29% shifted their support to John Dramani Mahama, highlighting a notable shift in voter loyalty within the party’s base.
“In the Ahafo region, nearly 40% of voters who voted for Nana Addo in 2020 voted for JDM but 50% of JDM 2020 voters voted for Bawumia.
“In Bono East, nearly 20% of voters who voted for Nana Addo in 2020 voted for JDM. 9% of JDM 2020 voters voted for Bawumia. In Savannah, nearly 53% of voters who voted for Nana Addo in 2020 voted for JDM. 16% of JDM 2020 voters voted Bawumia”.
Mussa Dankwah
He highlighted significant voter dynamics in specific regions, revealing notable shifts in political allegiances.
In the Oti Region, nearly 39% of voters who supported Nana Addo in the 2020 elections switched their allegiance to John Dramani Mahama in the recent polls, while only 2% of JDM’s 2020 voters crossed over to support Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia.
In the Upper East Region, approximately 23% of Nana Addo’s 2020 voters transitioned to support JDM, with 8% of JDM’s 2020 voters opting for Bawumia instead.
Meanwhile, in the Upper West Region, about 22.7% of Nana Addo’s 2020 supporters shifted to John Mahama, but a more pronounced shift occurred as 23.1% of Mahama’s 2020 voters chose Bawumia.
These patterns reflect varying levels of voter retention and cross-party appeal in different regions.
Dankwah further observed that in the Western North Region, nearly 50% of voters who supported Nana Addo in the 2020 elections switched their allegiance to John Mahama in the recent polls, while 5% of Mahama’s 2020 voters moved to support Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia.
Similarly, in the Volta Region, nearly 50% of Nana Addo’s 2020 voters crossed over to JDM, with 9% of Mahama’s 2020 supporters choosing Bawumia.
These trends highlight notable changes in voter loyalty across these regions.
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