Mussa Dankwah, the Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, has refuted claims by the New Patriotic Party (NPP) that the unwillingness of Seventh-Day Adventist (SDA) Christians to vote played a significant role in the party’s defeat in the 2024 elections.
The claim was initially made by former Minister of Local Government, Martin Adjei Mensah-Korsah, who pointed to various contributing factors to the NPP’s loss, including the supposed reluctance of SDA Christians to participate in the election.
However, Dankwah dismissed this argument, stating that available data does not support the claim.
“How significant is the SDA issue in NPP defeat? According to post-election polls conducted, the majority of voters who did not vote in 2024 based on Christian denominations were Catholics, 20%, Pentecostal, 18%, Presbyterians, 16%, Charismatics, 14%, Methodists, 13%, other groups, 7%, Anglican, 5%, SDA, 5% and JW, 3%.”
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah emphasized that the SDA denomination accounts for only 2% of the general Christian voter population.
Furthermore, even among those who voted on election day, SDAs still represented 2%, making their impact on the election outcome negligible.
Religious and Ethnic Factors in Voter Turnout
While dismissing the SDA argument, Mussa Dankwah acknowledged that both religious and ethnic factors played a role in voter turnout during the 2024 elections, with the Ashanti Region experiencing the most significant impact.
He pointed to polling data that revealed a striking trend among those who abstained from voting.
According to the data, 72% of non-voters stated that a candidate’s religion was not a determining factor in their decision to stay away from the polls.
“However, 11% said it was important in their decision. With 18.8 million on the register and 11.6 million voting, which meant that 7.2 million did not come out to vote, assuming the register is accurate, this suggests that nearly 800,000 voters may not have voted because of the religion of the candidates.”
Mussa Dankwah
The data also revealed a comparable pattern when it came to ethnicity. It indicated that just as religion influenced voter turnout, ethnicity also played a role, though to a lesser extent.
According to the findings, 10% of voters who abstained from the polls did so because of the ethnicity of the candidates, suggesting that ethnic considerations still factor into electoral decisions, albeit not as prominently as other issues.
The Ashanti Region, a traditional stronghold of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), recorded the highest number of absentee voters in the 2024 elections.
Within this group, 30% of non-voters attributed their decision to the religious affiliations of the candidates, while 27% pointed to ethnicity as their reason for not participating.
These figures, Dankwah indicated, highlight the nuanced ways in which identity politics continue to shape Ghana’s electoral landscape, influencing voter enthusiasm and turnout. “Nearly all those who said religion was important also said ethnicity was important.”
SDA Voter Turnout in the Ashanti Region
Further breaking down the figures, Mussa Dankwah highlighted that among those who did not vote in the Ashanti Region, the majority were Presbyterians (28%), while SDA voters accounted for only 6%.
He pointed out that, in the broader context of the election, SDAs make up only 2% of Christian denominations in the region.
This relatively small demographic presence significantly weakens the argument that their participation—or lack thereof—had any meaningful impact on the final election results.
Given the overwhelming dominance of other Christian groups and religious affiliations, the notion that SDA voters alone could have swayed the election outcome appears highly improbable.
“The poll also shows that the Ashanti Region accounts for the majority of SDA voters in Ghana with nearly 20% share, followed by Eastern, 18% and Western Region, also 18%.”
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah noted that despite these statistics, the NPP’s attempt to attribute its defeat to SDA voter apathy appears misplaced, as the numbers indicate a much broader issue of declining voter enthusiasm influenced by religion and ethnicity.
Dankwah’s analysis suggests that the NPP would be better served by addressing the larger concerns surrounding voter disillusionment rather than focusing on SDA voter turnout as a scapegoat.
The party’s loss, according to the data, was shaped by deeper systemic issues rather than the voting decisions of a relatively small religious group.
