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Gaza Ceasefire Future Uncertain

Comfort Ampomaaby Comfort Ampomaa
February 28, 2025
Reading Time: 4 mins read
Freed Palestinian prisoners flash V-signs as they arrive in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip, February 27, 2025.

Freed Palestinian prisoners flash V-signs as they arrive in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip, February 27, 2025.

Ahead of Saturday’s expiration of the truce’s first phase, Egyptian officials have disclosed that negotiations between Israel and Hamas on the next phase of the Gaza ceasefire have begun in Cairo.

Talks on Phase 2 of the Gaza ceasefire agreement are meant to negotiate an end to the war, including the return of all remaining hostages in Gaza who are alive, and the withdrawal of all Israeli troops from the territory.

The warring sides have not spelled out what would happen beyond Saturday if the first phase of the ceasefire expires with no agreement.

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Egypt and Qatar are mediating between Israel and Hamas, with the backing of the US.

Meanwhile, Israel is seeking to extend the initial phase, with Hamas freeing three captives each week in exchange for Palestinians held by Israel.

Israel Foreign Minister, Gideon Saar said earlier that a delegation would travel to Egypt to see whether there was common ground to negotiate an extension to the first phase of the truce due to expire.

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It will be difficult to reconcile a deal with the war objectives of Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who has called for dismantling Hamas’ governing and military capabilities.

Hours before talks began in Cairo, an Israeli official said that the country would not withdraw from a strategic corridor in the Gaza Strip as called for under the ceasefire, a refusal that could severely complicate negotiations with Hamas and key mediator Egypt at a sensitive moment for the fragile truce.

After suffering heavy losses in the war, Hamas has nonetheless emerged intact during the ceasefire, and the group says it will not give up its weapons.

Meanwhile, Israel’s government faces public pressure to stick to the ceasefire to free remaining captives, while some within the right-wing government want to return to war to fulfil their objective of eradicating Hamas.

Roy Casagrande, a Professor of government at Austin Community College, opined that the future of the Gaza ceasefire remains deeply uncertain and that Israel’s escalating military operations in the occupied West Bank could further dim prospects for peace.

“Many suggested that we should have phase one extended instead of moving on to phase two

“Instead of moving towards more peace, they seem to be moving in the other direction. And if operations in the occupied West Bank continue to become more violent, I don’t see how you can have peace in Gaza at that point.”

Roy Casagrande

Moreover, Casagrande said that if the war in Gaza ends permanently, it is likely Netanyahu’s government would fall.

Israel's Prime Minister. Benjamin Netanyahu.
Israel’s Prime Minister. Benjamin Netanyahu.

He noted that Netanyahu would be facing all sorts of legal challenges and possibly a jail sentence. “So it’s actually probably in his best interest to keep the war going,” he said.

Regarding negotiations around the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, Hamas political bureau official, Basem Naim asserted that the group must be involved in phase two of ceasefire negotiations if they are expected to fulfil their obligations under phase one.

Naim continued that Hamas remained committed to the ceasefire, even as Israel has violated the deal by preventing aid from reaching Gaza, delaying the release of Palestinian prisoners and carrying out attacks in the coastal enclave.

“I think the Israelis are planning to escalate again, despite [the fact] – we have said many times – we are committed to the deal. We have done already our duties according to the deal, and we are ready to continue implementing the deal.”

Basem Naim

Trump Pressure To Make Or Break Ceasefire Deal

With phase two of ceasefire negotiations under way in Egypt, Israeli columnist, Gideon Levy told a news agency that the results could rest on whether US President, Donald Trump is willing to put pressure on Israel to make a deal. “[If] the Trump administration is harsh enough with Israel, there will be phase two, but if they leave it to the Israelis, there will be no phase two,” Levy said.

In an opinion piece published in an Israeli newspaper, Levy said that left to its own devices, Israel is determined to resume the war in Gaza and keep waging war in the occupied West Bank.

“Israel alone will bear responsibility for the next war in the West Bank. Don’t say we were caught by surprise; don’t dare say we didn’t know.

“The writing has been on the wall, spelled out in fire and blood, for 16 months – and no one is stopping it. It’s hardly even being reported.”

Gideon Levy

READ ALSO: Mahama Reaffirms Ghana’s Diplomatic Commitments with Diplomatic Corps

Tags: Gaza stripIsrael-Hamas ceasefireIsrael-Hamas warNegotiationsRoy Casagrande
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