Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod) latest export figures released, have revealed that the nation’s small-scale gold sector is tethered to a remarkably narrow corridor of global trade.
In 2025, Ghana successfully exported a staggering 103,804 kilograms of gold through the national aggregation system, yet the data underscores a precarious structural reality: over 98.8 percent of this volume was absorbed by just two nations.
This heavy concentration in Dubai and India indicates that while the artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) sector is a powerhouse of production, its market reach remains geographically restricted, exposing the broader economy to external shocks from these specific jurisdictions.
“Yesterday, the Ghana Gold Board surpassed its 2025 small-scale gold export target of 100 tons, generating over US$10 billion in foreign exchange for the country. This outcome underscores the viability of GoldBod’s mandate to sanitise and formalise gold trading in Ghana. We remain dedicated to transforming the industry to maximize national benefits through responsible sourcing and value addition.”
Ghana Gold Board
GoldBod report clarifies that Dubai has solidified its position as the undisputed hub for Ghanaian bullion, accounting for more than 72 percent of total small-scale exports.
India maintains a firm second place, facilitating roughly 25 percent of the trade, which leaves a mere 1.2 percent to be distributed among eight other global markets, including Switzerland and South Africa.
This lopsided trade architecture is primarily a consequence of Ghana’s current production model, where gold is predominantly exported in its raw, unrefined state.
Because much of the ASM output fails to meet the stringent refinery standards and rigorous “traceability requirements” mandated by premium markets in North America and Europe, the trade is “naturally channelled” toward hubs with fewer compliance hurdles, albeit at the cost of reduced bargaining power.
The Economic Shield: Cedi Stability and Forex Inflows
The ASM-linked exports generated over US$10 billion in 2025 alone, acting as a critical “source of foreign exchange” that provided the necessary liquidity to stabilize the Cedi during volatile market cycles.
In a year where the national currency faced immense pressure, the consistent inflow from the gold trade served as a primary buffer, preventing a deeper fiscal crisis and supporting the Bank of Ghana’s reserve accumulation strategy.
However, the “downside” of this success is the “critical exposure” it creates for the Ghanaian economy.
Analysts warned that the current reliance on unrefined exports forces Ghanaian sellers to accept “lower margins” than they would otherwise command in highly regulated, premium-pricing jurisdictions.
By failing to add value locally through advanced refining, Ghana is essentially exporting potential profits and industrial jobs, remaining a price-taker in a market dominated by the logistical preferences of Dubai and Indian refiners.
Vulnerability and the Risk of External Shocks
The structural reliance on two specific markets means that any “regulatory changes” or “import restrictions” introduced in either Dubai or India would immediately ripple through the Ghanaian economy.
If these major partners were to suddenly impose new compliance thresholds or sanctions on uncertified gold, the impact on Ghana’s foreign exchange earnings would be instantaneous and severe.
Economic observers have noted that the resilience of the Cedi is currently “heavily reliant on decisions made outside the country,” a position that leaves the state vulnerable to geopolitical shifts beyond its control.
Furthermore, the lack of market diversification limits the strategic options for the Ghana Gold Board. While the 2025 performance was a record-breaking milestone, the concentration risk suggests that the next phase of mining policy must focus on “traceability frameworks” and local refinery certification.
To move away from this “heavy market dependence,” Ghana must align its small-scale production with the “refinery standards” of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) to unlock access to Swiss and Western markets, thereby diluting the current duopoly held by Dubai and India.
Strategic Imperatives for the Extractive Sector
To ensure long-term sustainability, GoldBod and the Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources must prioritize “value addition” to break the cycle of exporting raw wealth.
If Ghana can transition from being a supplier of unrefined dore to a provider of certified, refined bullion, it can dictate better terms and attract “niche buyers” who offer premium rates for ethical gold.
Until such reforms are fully realized, the Ghanaian economy remains in a state of “fragile success,” where its greatest economic asset is also its most significant point of external vulnerability.
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