A June 2026 tracking poll by Global InfoAnalytics indicates that former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia trails three leading National Democratic Congress figures across most key ethnic and religious voting blocs, raising fresh questions about the structure of Ghana’s emerging political competition ahead of 2028.
The analysis, presented by Global InfoAnalytics lead analyst Salim Ahmed Nsiah, examined head-to-head matchups between Dr. Bawumia and Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, NDC National Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketiah, and Education Minister Haruna Iddrisu.
The findings suggest that while the opposition New Patriotic Party’s 2028 flagbearer maintains strong support within select northern constituencies, his appeal appears significantly narrower when measured against broader national demographics.
According to the poll, Dr. Forson leads Dr. Bawumia nationally with 54.4 percent compared to 35.4 percent, a gap attributed to strong cross ethnic and cross religious support.
Ethnic Voting Patterns Show Concentrated Support Base
The ethnic breakdown of the survey suggests that Dr. Bawumia’s strongest performance is concentrated within the Mole Dagbani, Mande, and Gur ethnic groups. In these constituencies, he outperforms at least one or more of the NDC contenders, reflecting a solid regional base of support.
However, the same data shows him trailing across most other ethnic categories when matched against all three NDC frontrunners. Dr. Forson, in particular, records significant leads among several major ethnic groups.
Among Akan respondents, who constitute a large share of Ghana’s electorate, he leads Dr. Bawumia by 12 percentage points. The poll also shows overwhelming support for Dr. Forson among Ewe voters, where he leads by 53 percentage points.
According to Mr. Nsiah, these figures are politically decisive given the size and distribution of these voting blocs. The analysis further notes that Ga Adangme and Guan voters could play a pivotal role in determining national outcomes.
Dr. Forson leads Dr. Bawumia by 37 percentage points among Ga Adangme respondents and by 27 percentage points among Guan voters, both of which are concentrated in key swing regions such as Greater Accra and parts of the Eastern Region.
Religious Data Highlights Wider Gaps
The poll’s religious breakdown presents similar patterns, with Dr. Bawumia trailing across both major faith groups. Among Christians, who form the majority of Ghana’s population, Dr. Forson leads Dr. Bawumia by 21 percentage points.
Among Muslims, Dr. Forson also maintains an advantage, leading by 16 percentage points. Haruna Iddrisu and Johnson Asiedu Nketiah also outperform Dr. Bawumia within segments of the Muslim electorate, though Dr. Bawumia retains comparatively stronger support in northern Muslim dominated areas, particularly among Mole Dagbani and Gur groups.
However, the data suggest that this support remains geographically and ethnically concentrated rather than nationally distributed. Mr. Nsiah noted that even within Muslim communities, support for Dr. Bawumia does not translate into a broad national advantage when compared to the NDC contenders.
The survey also highlights strong NDC performance among respondents classified as non-religious or belonging to other faith traditions. Dr. Forson leads by 24 percentage points in the “others” category and by 14 percentage points among non-religious respondents.
Economy Seen as Key Driver of Voter Preference
Beyond identity-based voting patterns, the analysis suggests that economic perceptions are playing an increasingly important role in shaping voter behavior. Dr. Forson’s performance is linked in part to strong public trust ratings on economic management indicators, including the cedi and education sector confidence.
According to the analysis, he records a 66 percent trust rating on the cedi and 37 percent on education, figures that appear to resonate across demographic lines. Mr. Nsiah argued that this economic perception is weakening traditional identity driven political loyalties.
He stated that Dr. Forson’s appeal appears to cut across ethnic and religious boundaries, unlike Dr. Bawumia’s more concentrated support base.
Electoral Implications for 2028
The poll suggests that Dr. Bawumia’s current political challenge lies in the geographic and demographic concentration of his support. While he performs strongly within specific northern ethnic and Muslim constituencies, the data indicates limited traction in other major voting blocs.
The analysis argues that Dr. Forson’s advantage stems from broader coalition building across Akan voters, Christian voters, urban constituencies, and swing demographic groups such as Ga Adangme and Guan populations.
A key finding is that Dr. Forson leads both Christians by 21 percentage points and Muslims by 16 percentage points, a rare combination in Ghana’s electoral history. Mr. Nsiah noted that such a cross-faith appeal was last widely observed in the 2012 election cycle, suggesting a potential shift in the importance of identity politics.
The poll concludes that Dr. Bawumia’s coalition is largely dependent on a combination of northern ethnic groups and Muslim voters, while Dr. Forson appears to benefit from a broader national appeal that spans both religious and ethnic lines.
While the election remains years away, the June 2026 Global InfoAnalytics tracking poll presents a snapshot of evolving voter dynamics. The data suggests that demographic alignment, economic perceptions, and regional distribution of support will continue to shape political competition leading into the 2028 electoral cycle.
The findings highlight a widening gap between concentrated regional support and broad national appeal, with implications for how both governing and opposition parties structure their future political strategies.
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