A new opinion poll has placed Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Baah Forson ahead of former Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia in a hypothetical presidential contest, highlighting what analysts may view as an early indicator of voter sentiment ahead of Ghana’s 2028 general elections.
The survey, conducted by Global InfoAnalytics, shows Dr Ato Forson securing 54 percent support against 35 percent for Dr Bawumia in a direct contest between the two economists.
The findings suggest a significant lead for the Finance Minister, who is increasingly emerging as a prominent figure within the governing National Democratic Congress, despite not having formally declared an intention to contest the party’s future presidential primaries.
Dr Bawumia, meanwhile, remains the New Patriotic Party’s flagbearer for the 2028 election following his selection by the opposition party after serving as Vice President under the previous administration.
The poll results have attracted attention because they compare two political figures whose careers have been closely associated with economic policy and management, making the contest not only a political battle but also one shaped by competing economic credentials.
Regional Breakdown Favors Finance Minister
The survey indicates that Dr Ato Forson enjoys a broad geographical advantage across much of the country. According to the findings, he leads in Ahafo, Bono, Bono East, Central, Eastern, Greater Accra, Oti, Savannah, Upper East, Volta, Western and Western North regions.
The opposition New Patriotic Party 2028 flagbearer, Dr Bawumia, on the other hand, maintains a lead in Ashanti, North East, Northern, and Upper West regions.
The regional distribution suggests that Dr Ato Forson has succeeded in building support beyond the traditional strongholds of the National Democratic Congress, while Dr Bawumia continues to perform strongly in regions where the New Patriotic Party has historically maintained significant electoral influence.
Regional strength often plays a critical role in shaping electoral outcomes, particularly in national contests where candidates seek to broaden their appeal beyond their core support bases.
The survey’s regional findings therefore point to an advantage for the Finance Minister in terms of national reach, although electoral dynamics can change considerably as elections draw closer.
Strong Support From Party Bases
The poll also highlights strong loyalty among supporters of both major political parties. Among National Democratic Congress supporters, Dr Ato Forson enjoys the backing of 83 percent of respondents. Similarly, Dr Bawumia commands the support of 84 percent of New Patriotic Party supporters.
The figures indicate that both politicians maintain substantial influence within their respective political traditions and have succeeded in consolidating support among party faithful.
Such levels of support are significant because party bases often provide the foundation upon which broader electoral coalitions are built. While the loyalty of core supporters is expected, the ability to attract voters beyond traditional party lines frequently determines success in highly competitive national elections.
It is in this area that the latest survey presents one of its most noteworthy findings.
Floating Voters Tilt Towards Ato Forson
The poll shows Dr Ato Forson holding a lead among floating voters, a category often regarded as decisive in close electoral contests. According to the survey, 48 percent of floating voters indicated support for the Finance Minister compared to 37 percent for Dr Bawumia.
The finding suggests that Dr Ato Forson currently enjoys stronger appeal among voters who are not firmly aligned with either of Ghana’s two major political parties.
Political analysts have long viewed floating voters as one of the most influential segments of the electorate because their preferences can shift based on prevailing political and economic conditions.
A candidate’s ability to win the confidence of this group often enhances their prospects of building a broad national coalition capable of securing victory in a general election. The survey therefore positions Dr Ato Forson as having a notable advantage among undecided and independent minded voters at this stage.
Crossover Support Emerges as Key Factor
Perhaps the most striking finding in the survey relates to crossover support between supporters of the two major political parties. According to Global InfoAnalytics, Dr Ato Forson records the strongest crossover appeal among potential National Democratic Congress contenders.
The poll indicates that 12 percent of New Patriotic Party supporters would vote for Dr Ato Forson, while only 7 percent of National Democratic Congress supporters expressed support for Dr Bawumia.
This gives the Finance Minister a five percentage point advantage in crossover support. The finding is particularly significant because it suggests that Dr Ato Forson is attracting support beyond his party’s traditional electoral base at a higher rate than his potential rival.
In electoral politics, crossover appeal is often regarded as an important measure of a candidate’s ability to unite diverse groups of voters and expand support beyond partisan boundaries.
Implications for 2028 Politics
Although the 2028 presidential election remains several years away, the survey provides an early glimpse into possible political alignments should the two economists eventually face each other in a national contest.
For Dr Mahamaudu Bawumia, the findings underline the challenge of rebuilding momentum following the New Patriotic Party’s defeat in the 2024 election.
As the party’s flagbearer, he remains one of the most recognizable political figures in the country and is expected to play a central role in shaping the opposition’s electoral strategy.
For Dr Ato Forson, the poll strengthens perceptions of his growing popularity among general voters and his emergence as a leading figure within the governing National Democratic Congress.
However, he has not publicly confirmed any intention to contest the party’s presidential nomination, leaving questions about the eventual shape of the race within the governing party.
While political fortunes can change over time, the latest findings suggest that if a contest between the two economists were held today, Dr Ato Forson would enter the race with a significant advantage in national support, regional reach, floating voter backing and crossover appeal.
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