UK National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell has urged European nations to prepare for “real hardship” this winter as they maintain economic pressure on Russia and continue supporting Ukraine in its war against Moscow.
Speaking at the Yalta European Strategy forum in Kyiv, Powell argued that Europe’s strategy of backing Ukraine while imposing sanctions on Russia is beginning to deliver results, despite the growing economic and security pressures facing the continent.
According to the British Security Official, European countries should not ease pressure on Moscow because of concerns about Russian escalation. Instead, he described warnings of escalation as evidence that sanctions and Western support for Ukraine were beginning to affect Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Powell noted that talk of Russian escalation is “not a problem” but a “sign of success,” suggesting that Moscow’s increasingly aggressive posture reflected the pressure it was facing.
He therefore called on European governments to keep their “foot on the gas” rather than reduce their support for Kyiv.
His remarks come at a difficult time for both Ukraine and Europe. Russia continues to wage strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, while Ukraine suffers additional economic damage and mounting fears about its capacity to sustain key services during the upcoming winter.
At the same time, European countries are preparing for another difficult energy period after sharply reducing their reliance on Russian oil and gas. Although sanctions have significantly cut Russian energy imports, Europe has not completely severed its dependence, leaving some countries exposed to shortages and higher energy costs.
The European Union still receives about 12% of its gas imports from Russia, despite plans to eliminate Russian gas from its energy mix by January. The European Court of Auditors last week warned that the phase-out plan was “faltering” amid gas shortages linked to the war in Iran.
Powell, meanwhile, views Europe’s economic problems as part of the broader cost of continuing to put pressure on Moscow. He maintained that if European governments are to succeed in their strategy, they must be ready to endure adversity.
Additionally, the British national security adviser gave a remarkably positive assessment of Ukraine’s standing in the war, claiming that the nation had “already won” in a strategic sense because Putin would not be able to subjugate the entire nation.
Powell stated that whether Ukraine could maintain its independence and make its own decisions about its future was more important than the amount of territory Russia would acquire or lose.
“The war is ‘not about territory’ but about ‘the right of Ukraine to be independent’,” Powell stated, adding that “to the extent that Putin gains another 10km of land or loses another 40km of land, this war is already won.”
He argued that the existence of a free and European Ukraine represented a long-term challenge to Putin because Russians would eventually see the contrast between their own political system and an independent Ukraine integrated with Europe.
Powell added, “that’s the threat to him at home. There is a free, independent and European Ukraine, and people in Russia are going to notice that.”
Ukraine Faces Growing Economic and Military Pressure
While Powell argued that the wider strategy was beginning to work, Ukraine continues to face severe pressure from Russia’s sustained attacks.
Russian strikes have increasingly targeted infrastructure, damaging the Ukrainian economy, disrupting daily life and raising concerns about the country’s ability to withstand another difficult winter.
Ukraine’s Minister of Economy, Oleksandr Kravchenko, revealed at the conference that Russian attacks during the year were expected to cause about $10 billion (£7.4 billion) in damage to infrastructure and other assets.
He also warned that the blockade of Ukraine’s seaports was restricting grain exports and contributing to a projected 1.5% contraction in the country’s gross domestic product.
The economic pressure is being accompanied by continued military advances and threats in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities have begun evacuating some residents from Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, two of the largest cities still under full Ukrainian control in the Donbas.
The region remains central to Moscow’s war objectives, with Russia claiming sovereignty over the Donbas and seeking to capture territory that remains under Ukrainian control.
Despite the deteriorating conditions, Powell maintained that the eventual outcome should be judged by whether Ukraine survives as an independent state rather than by the precise territorial boundaries established at the end of the conflict.
He acknowledged that predicting when the war will end was difficult, describing it as a “mug’s game,” but noted that Europe needed to remain prepared for negotiations, adding that, “where we least expect it, Putin will be ready to negotiate… It’s all about getting him to be serious in that negotiation. And I think that strategy is beginning to work.”
Powell, who previously helped negotiate the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland, also argued that continued communication with Moscow remained necessary despite the deep hostility between Russia and the West.
He added that US and Europe should maintain contact with Putin to prevent miscalculations, particularly over the boundaries of Western military involvement.
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