The carbon footprints of the world’s richest 1 percent are set to be 30 times greater than the level in line with reaching the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement in 2030. This comes as world leaders contend with ways to keep this goal alive at the COP26 meeting in Glasgow.

In a joint briefing note released by Oxfam, the Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) and the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), the contributors of the report estimate how governments’ pledges will affect the carbon footprints of richer and poorer people around the world.

In 2015, governments agreed to the goal of reducing global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, but current pledges to reduce emissions fall far short of what is needed. To stay within this pathway, all persons in the world would need to emit an average of just 2.3 tons of CO2 per year by 2030― this is roughly half the average footprint of every person on Earth today.

Nafkote Dabi, Climate Policy Lead at Oxfam, said:

“The emissions from a single billionaire spaceflight would exceed the lifetime emissions of someone in the poorest billion people on Earth. A tiny elite appear to have a free pass to pollute.

“Their over-sized emissions are fueling extreme weather around the world and jeopardizing the international goal of limiting global heating. The emissions of the wealthiest 10 percent alone could send us beyond the agreed limit in the next nine years.
Nafkote Dabi, Climate Policy Lead, Oxfam

Between 2015 and 2030, the world’s richest 1 percent are set to reduce their per capita consumption emissions by just 5 percent, compared with the 97 percent cuts needed to align with the global per capita level compatible with the 1.5⁰C goal.

Ways to Keep the Paris Goal Alive

The report estimates that the per capita emissions of the poorest half of the world population may increase– from an extremely low baseline– by 17 percent, but even if per capita emissions grew by 200 percent they would still be within the 1.5⁰C compatible per capita level.

Tim Gore, Head of the Low Carbon and Circular Economy program at IEEP, commented:

“The global emissions gap to keep the 1.5°C Paris goal alive is not the result of the consumption of most of the world’s people. To close the emissions gap by 2030, it is necessary for governments to target measures at their richest, highest emitters― the climate and inequality crises should be tackled together.

“That includes both measures to constrain luxury carbon consumption like mega yachts, private jets and space travel, and to curb climate-intensive investments like stock-holdings in fossil fuel industries.”
Tim Gore, Head of Low Carbon and Circular Economy Program, IEEP

At the COP26, governments must commit to a timetable to strengthen near-term NDCs in line with the 1.5⁰C goal while being mindful of maintaining equity, the report indicates.

This means the world’s richest, highest-emitting countries must finally commit their fair share. These countries must lead the way in cutting emissions far faster by 2030, and providing the substantial finance needed by poorer countries to further limit their emissions too.

Being in agreement with previously expressed sentiments by others, the report indicates that it is “time for governments to raise major taxes on or to out rightly ban highly carbon-intensive luxury consumption.”