The Institute for Energy Security (IES) has projected a potential reduction in fuel prices specifically, diesel and petrol, for the second pricing-window of February 2025.
This expected decrease is attributed to the recent drop in refined petroleum product prices on the international market. However, the price of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) is expected to remain stable, unaffected by global market trends.
According to the IES, refined petroleum product prices have recently followed a downward trajectory.
Specifically, gasoline prices dropped by 1.26%, while gasoil (diesel) saw a steeper decline of 4.50%, and LPG prices experienced a slight decrease of 0.22%. These reductions are based on global market data, which shows a marked dip in the prices of petroleum products.
Despite these declines, the Ghanaian Cedi has weakened against the U.S. Dollar by 2.18%, which is an important factor that may counterbalance the potential price reductions on the international market.
The IES highlighted the complex relationship between global price movements and the local currency’s performance. The depreciation of the Cedi means that even with falling global prices, local prices may not experience the full benefit of these reductions.
“The international fuel market has seen a decline in refined petroleum product prices, with Gasoline dropping by 1.26%, Gasoil by 4.50%, and LPG by 0.22%.
“However, the Ghanaian Cedi has depreciated by 2.18% against the U.S. Dollar.”
Institute for Energy Security (IES)
In the first pricing-window of February 2025, Ghana experienced upward adjustments in the prices of petroleum products, marking the third consecutive price increase since the start of the year.
During this period, the price per litre of gasoil (diesel) rose by GH₵0.45, while gasoline increased by GH₵0.24. LPG, the third major fuel product, remained relatively stable during the first window.
According to data gathered by the IES from Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), the national average prices for these products during the first pricing-window of February were GH₵15.61 per litre for gasoline, GH₵15.65 per litre for gasoil, and GH₵18.79 per kilogram for LPG.
The IES also observed that Benab, Star Oil, and Zen Petroleum were the OMCs offering the lowest prices during this period.
Global Fuel Market Overview
The most recent data from Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Platts, published for the first half of February 2025, shows a decline in global fuel prices.
Specifically, gasoline prices closed at $722.17 per metric tonne, gasoil at $708.67 per metric tonne, and LPG at $622.46 per metric tonne.
The downward trend in prices for all three refined petroleum products—gasoline, gasoil, and LPG—can be attributed to a variety of global factors, including decreased demand for petroleum products in certain regions, as well as adjustments in production levels by major oil-producing nations.
While these declines are relatively modest, they are still significant enough to influence pricing trends in fuel-exporting nations like Ghana.
However, the drop in international prices is counterbalanced by a number of domestic factors, most notably the depreciation of the Cedi against the U.S. Dollar.
“Given the combined effects of global fuel price trends and the Cedi’s depreciation, the second pricing-window of February is expected to bring mixed reactions on the local fuel market.”
Institute for Energy Security (IES)
While the downward trend in international fuel prices may lead to reductions in the cost of diesel and petrol, the depreciation of the Cedi could temper these price decreases. LPG prices are expected to remain stable, offering little change for consumers in that sector.
Market analysts and consumers alike will be keenly watching how these global and local factors play out in the coming weeks.
The ongoing fluctuations in international fuel prices, combined with the performance of the Cedi, will continue to shape Ghana’s fuel pricing landscape in the short term.
As such, the outlook for fuel prices remains uncertain, with some potential for relief for consumers, but also challenges ahead in the form of currency volatility.
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