The Industry Sector is expected to recover sharply with a growth of 6.3 percent in 2022 which is projected to be sustained and robust with an average medium-term growth of 5.9 percent.
An anticipated recovery in the Mining and Quarrying subsector, which includes petroleum, is expected to significantly contribute to the overall recovery of Industry.
In the sector’s outlook for the medium-term, government expects the sector to experience yearly performances of 5.6 percent, 5.0 percent, and 7.1 percent in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively. The Industry sector is the hardest hit sector in Ghana’s economy due to the impacts of the COVID-19 with growth expected to contract by 0.5 percent in 2021, based on sharp declines in petroleum and gold production.
Disclosing the government’s outlook for the sector in the medium-term, Finance Minister, Ken Ofori-Atta, stated that the seemingly negative growth in gold production largely emanates from the use of gold exports to proxy gold production due to lack of data on gold production.
Anticipated strong recovery in the Mining sector
In 2022 and beyond, the government expects an anticipated recovery in the Mining and Quarrying subsector, which includes petroleum, to significantly contribute to the overall recovery of the Industry sector.
“The sub-sector is expected to record an improved growth performance of 6.5 percent in 2022, from the expected contraction of 10.5 percent in 2021, as a result of turnarounds in the production of oil and gas, as well as gold. First Oil from the Pecan field is expected in 2024, with a ramp-up of production occurring the following year in 2025. As a result, the Mining and Quarrying sub-sector is projected to grow by 4.3 percent, 2.5 percent, and 8.5 percent in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively”.Ken Ofori-Atta
The industry sector, led by the government’s flagship program, One District One Factory (1D1F), is expected to open up the economy, drive growth, create employment and improve the living standards of Ghanaians.
Agriculture & services sectors
Agriculture sector is expected to grow at 5.3 percent in 2021 and maintain the same growth rate in 2022. Over the medium-term, the sector growth is expected to stabilize at 5.5 percent from 2023 to 2025. The sector’s growth is expected to be mainly driven by supportive interventions in the Crops and Fishing sub-sectors, boosted by the ‘Planting for Food & Jobs’ Programme.
The government expects the largest sector of the economy, the Services sector, to grow at 8.3 percent in 2021, and 5.6 percent in 2022.
“The sector was severely hit by the pandemic, but a pre-pandemic growth path is expected to be swiftly restored over the medium-term. The sector is expected to record an average growth rate of 5.4 percent over the medium-term, based on yearly growth rates of 5.2 percent, 5.4 percent, and 5.5 percent in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively”.Ken Ofori-Atta
Services Sector performance over the medium-term, as presented by Mr. Ofori-Atta, is expected to be broad-based, led by strong average growth performances in Information and Communication (8.6%), Hotels and Restaurants (6.7%), Education (6.3%), and Real Estate (6.0%).
Structure of the Economy between 2021-2025
The government expects the structure of the economy to remain unchanged in the medium-term. The Services sector is expected to remain the dominant sector over the medium-term in terms of percentage share to overall national output with a share of 48.7 percent. This will be followed by Industry and Agriculture with 30.7 percent and 20.6 percent, respectively. Overall GDP growth of the Ghanaian economy in 2021 is forecast at 4.4% which is expected to strengthen to 5.8% in 2022.