The Global InfoAnalytics has projected the National Democratic Congress (NDC) to obtain a majority in the upcoming parliamentary elections in a comprehensive analysis of its December 2023 polls.
The data according to Global InfoAnalytics Executive Director, Musa Danquah revealed very intriguing insights into voter preferences, with the National Democratic Congress maintaining a stronghold on its 2020 voters, while the New Patriotic Party (NPP) faces challenges in retaining its electoral base.
According to Mr Danquah, the December 2023 poll suggested that a staggering 89% of voters who supported National Democratic Congress parliamentary candidates in the 2020 elections expressed their intent to vote for the party again in December 2024 while on the contrary, the New Patriotic Party is experiencing a decline, with only 59% of their 2020 voters expressing loyalty, while 17% are shifting allegiance to the opposition party.
NDC Leads Regional Support: NPP Struggles to Retain Support
The Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Musa Danquah further revealed that in the swing regions, including Greater Accra, Central, and Western, the National Democratic Congress dominated, in terms of support for its parliamentary candidate for the upcoming elections, particularly in Greater Accra where the party outperforms the national average by a significant margin.
Mr Danquah recounted that its data indicates that 91% of the National Democratic Congress’s 2020 voters in swing regions intend to stick with the party, while the ruling New Patriotic Party faced challenges, retaining only 49.7% of its 2020 voters.
In the Ashanti region, Mr Danquah noted that the National Democratic Congress retained 90.6% of its 2020 voters, demonstrating resilience in a traditional New Patriotic Party stronghold while the governing party’s 62.8% retention rate indicates some erosion of support.
“For those who voted for NPP candidates in 2020, only 62.8% will vote for them again in December 2024 elections, 12.4% will now vote for NDC candidates, 5.9% will vote for other candidates, 13.2% are undecided and 5.7% will not vote (understandable, better than national average).
“For those who did not vote in the 2020 elections, 23.8% intend to vote for the NDC candidates, 20.2 will vote for NPP candidates, 0.6% will vote for other candidates, 23.8% are undecided and 31.6% will still not vote in 2024”.
Musa Danquah
Moreover, the Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics indicated that the Central region presented a very complex scenario for both parties, with lower retention rates for both the opposition National Democratic Congress and the New Patriotic Party among their 2020 voters.
“The poll suggests that in the Central region, the poll shows that only 76.1 of voters who voted for NDC parliamentary candidates in 2020 elections intend to vote for them again in 2024, significantly lower than their national average. 16.1% will now vote for NPP candidates in the December elections, 1.1% will vote for other candidates, 5.5% are undecided and 1.1% say they will not vote.
“However, for those who voted for NPP candidates in 2020, only 49.5% will vote for them again in December 2024 elections, 26.9% will now vote for NDC candidates, 9.4% will vote for other candidates (the highest), 9.8% are undecided and 4.4% will not vote. For those who did not vote in the 2020 elections, 25.3% intend to vote for the NDC candidates, 19% will vote for NPP candidates, 7.6% will vote for other candidates, 27.9% are undecided and 20.3% will still not vote in 2024”.
Musa Danquah
Touching on the outcome of the December 2023 polls in the Greater Accra Region, Mr Danquah stated that the region appeared to be a stronghold for the opposition National Democratic Congress with an impressive 94.6% retention rate among its 2020 voters while the ruling New Patriotic Party on the other hand, faced challenges, with only 49.7% of their 2020 voters expressing intent to vote for the party again.
Mr Danquah emphasized that the outlook of the Greater Accra Region in its December 2023 polls indicates a potential political shift in the capital.
Again, in regions dominated by the Akan ethnic group including Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Bono East, Central, Eastern, Western and Western North, Mr Danquah revealed that the National Democratic Congress made significant gains by securing 83.3% of its 2020 voters, while the New Patriotic Party experienced a decline with only 58.9% of its 2020 voters considering to vote for its parliamentary candidates in the 2024 general elections.
According to him, the data based on its December 2023 polls suggests a changing political landscape in traditional strongholds.
The Executive Director for Global InfoAnalytcs concluded by stating that the overall implications of the data point towards the National Democratic Congress maintaining its 2020 voters and attracting a significant portion of those who did not participate in the previous elections.
However, Mr Danquah noted that the ruling New Patriotic Party is grappling with a decline in voter loyalty, raising questions about the party’s strategy and appeal ahead of the December 7 2024 polls.
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