A Political Science Lecturer at the University of Ghana, Professor Ransford Van Gyampo has challenged the validity of polls projections that place Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the New Patriotic Party’s flagbearer as the likely winner of the December 7, 2024, general elections.
The renowned political scientist in a scathing critique, strongly asserted that the real indicators of electoral outcomes are not found in poll numbers but in the everyday experiences and living conditions of Ghanaians.
He emphasized that the tangible realities of life for the average citizen are a more reliable predictor of election results than any poll could be.
“Every sensible Ghanaian who examines his or her living conditions daily has an a-priori knowledge of the outcome of the 2024 elections. There’s no need for a soothsayer at this particular time, when even ‘lying prophets’ have shut up”.
Professor Ransford Van Gyampo
Survey Result not reflective of Public Sentiment
Furthermore, Professor Gyampo vehemently posited that the latest polls that favors the Vice President, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia are not reflective of the true sentiment among the populace.
He added that every polling result that is “incongruous” with the real experiences of the people are not only “comic relief”, but also serves to discredit the pollster even in the eyes of those who benefit from the ‘tickling and laughing’ results”.
The renowned political scientist further underscored the importance of aligning polling data with the actual living conditions of the people, stressing that the real polling results are in the living conditions of the good people of Ghana.
“If the conditions have improved, they know, and if conditions have deteriorated, no one, and no polling results can force them not to know”.
Professor Ransford Van Gyampo
Professor Van Gyampo strongly emphasized that there is a huge disconnection that exists between the statistical predictions of electoral success for the Vice President, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia and the living conditions and realities of Ghanaian citizens.
In an earlier remarks, the Executive Director for the Global Info Analytics, Musa Danquah also expressed deep concerns over the methodologies employed by the pollsters and the potential biases that might affect their predictions.
He questioned why the survey by the researchers at the Kumasi Technical University did not encounter any voters who said they would not vote in the upcoming December general elections.
Commenting on the survey sample of 59546 respondents, Mr Danquah expressed doubt at the possibility of no respondents indicating they won’t participate in the upcoming general elections.
In a fervent call for accountability and transparency, the renowned pollster with expertise and knowledge across Africa, Europe and North America urged the researchers at the Kumasi Technical University, who conducted the controversial survey to publish the instrument used for their research.
He emphasized that in a political climate where trust in both leaders and institutions is paramount, the accuracy and integrity of polls become a critical issue, hence the urgent need for the researchers to provide the survey instrument for the general public’s independent assessment.
According to a recent survey conducted in April 2024, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, the flagbearer of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), is the leading preferred presidential candidate for the 2024 general elections, garnering support from 38.9% of respondents.
In comparison, John Dramani Mahama, the flagbearer of the oppositional National Democratic Congress is preferred by 36.1% of the respondents according to the survey.
Despite Dr Bawumia’s lead as a preferred candidate, the survey indicated that the National Democratic Congress remains the preferred party for the majority of the voter population.
The report also indicated that 38.8% of Ghanaians are likely to support the NDC in the upcoming election, showcasing the party’s higher popularity compared to the NPP.
The NDC’s popularity according to the survey surpasses that of the NPP in several regions, including Bono East, Greater Accra, Northern, Oti, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, and Volta regions.
Additionally, the survey indicated that the NDC and NPP are equally popular in the Western North Region.
READ ALSO: Ghana’s Gold Exports Surge Amid Declines in Crude Oil, Cocoa, and Timber
