France’s decades-long dominance in Africa has faltered as key regional allies redefine their partnerships. In recent weeks, Chad and Senegal — two of France’s most steadfast partners — delivered stunning blows to Paris.

Chad announced it would terminate its defense cooperation agreement with France, signaling a pivot toward sovereignty, while Senegal’s newly inaugurated President Bassirou Diomaye Faye declared it “obvious” that French troops would soon leave Senegalese soil. “Just because the French have been here since the slavery period doesn’t mean it’s impossible to do otherwise,” Faye said.

This upheaval coincides with France’s efforts to reimagine its military strategy on the continent. Paris has been reducing its permanent troop presence across Africa and emphasizing temporary deployments and targeted cooperation.

However, the announcements from Chad and Senegal underscore the diminishing tolerance for France’s long-standing role in its former colonies.

Chad’s Independence Day statement to end its defense pact with France marked a turning point in the region. French authorities, initially silent for nearly a day, later confirmed they were in “close dialogue” with Chad about the partnership’s future.

Mucahid Durmaz, a senior analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, described the decision as “the final nail in the coffin of France’s post-colonial military dominance in the Sahel.” He noted that the move reflects broader changes in Africa’s relationship with Paris, with France’s political and military influence waning across the region.

This shift follows the expulsion of French forces from Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, countries now ruled by military juntas. In each case, years of French military operations aimed at combating Islamist insurgencies failed to quell extremist threats, souring local sentiment.

In Senegal, President Faye’s remarks highlight a similar sentiment. French troops stationed in the country have faced growing scrutiny, with critics questioning their role and relevance in a region increasingly eager to explore alternatives.

While Senegal and Chad’s decisions might appear sudden, analysts argue they are the result of long-simmering frustrations. Gilles Yabi, head of the West Africa Citizen Think Tank, explained, “The countries of Francophone Africa want a change in the nature of this relationship.”

Strategic Reductions And Growing Competition

Amid these developments, France has been re-evaluating its military posture in Africa. A confidential report presented by Jean-Marie Bockel, President Emmanuel Macron’s personal envoy for Africa, outlined plans for a sharp reduction of troops in most African bases.

Details remain undisclosed, but senior French officials indicated the shift would emphasize training and temporary deployments instead of permanent military installations.

“The idea of having permanent military bases, which then can be used as political ammunition against you … is maybe not the best way of going about things,” said Will Brown, a senior policy fellow at the European Center for Foreign Relations.

France has also faced challenges from rival powers such as Russia, China, and Turkey. Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group have established a controversial presence in the Sahel, while Turkey and the United Arab Emirates have strengthened ties with nations like Chad.

Chad’s President Mahamat Deby recently traveled to Moscow, reinforcing his country’s relationship with Russia. Analysts believe Deby’s decision to end defense cooperation with France was bolstered by security guarantees from other actors, including the UAE and Turkey.

French Sangaris Forces — French Sangaris forces

While some African leaders celebrate reduced reliance on France, the consequences have been mixed. In Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, where French troops were ousted, security has deteriorated. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project reported a 25% increase in civilian deaths from extremist attacks in the first half of 2023 compared to the previous six months.

Analyst Shaantanu Shankar of the Economist Intelligence Unit warned of a “huge security vacuum” left by France’s departure, adding that Russian-backed forces cannot adequately fill the gap.

Despite these challenges, France is expanding its economic footprint in Africa’s anglophone countries, such as Nigeria and South Africa, its two largest trading partners on the continent. Macron’s recent meeting with Nigerian President Bola Tinubu reflects this pivot.

France’s evolving role in Africa marks a departure from the “Françafrique” era, characterized by deep political, economic, and military ties with former colonies. France still maintains troops in Djibouti, Ivory Coast, Senegal, and Gabon, but these deployments are increasingly seen as remnants of a bygone era.

Critics argue that France’s military presence has been as much about maintaining influence as combating extremism. Now, with growing anti-French sentiment across the continent, African nations are seeking partnerships with other global powers, including Russia and China.

As such, France recalibrates its strategy, but the road ahead remains uncertain. Its future in Africa will depend on balancing security needs, economic interests, and the aspirations of a continent eager to redefine its relationships on its own terms.