Ivorian household spending on food is set to outpace inflation within a fourteen-year period from 2011-2025, according to Fitch Solutions estimations.

According to Fitch Solutions, growth of food spending in Cote d’Ivoire is forecast to reach average of 9.2 percent year-on-year, compared with average inflation of 1 percent a year.

Fitch Solutions forecast that Ivorian households will spend 46.4 percent of total household budgets on food in 2025, representing an increase from 39.6 percent in 2011. The research firm explains that Cote d’Ivoire’s GDP has been positive over the years, yet consumers’ income have been relatively low to a large extent.

Also, GDP per capita is forecast to reach US$2,882 which is a twice increase over the 2011 value of US$1,220. This notwithstanding, households are very price conscious and allocate spending to meet their more immediate needs, Fitch Solution asserts.

Among the foods spent that are likely to drive this spending growth in Cote d’Ivoire include bread, rice and cereals, fresh vegetables and meat and poultry in 2025. These staples, according to the firm will account for the largest proportion of total food spending, at 27.3 percent in 2025.

Also, fresh vegetables spending will be the second largest, representing a proportion of 27.0 percent of total food spending in 2025. This is followed by meat and poultry, at 23.1 percent, Fitch Solutions indicates.

Furthermore, the staples form a key part of Ivorian diets, particularly rice, millet and sorghum. This growth pattern is evident in the strong growth in bread, rice and cereals spending, forecasted to grow by 11.2 percent year-on-year over the period under review.

Components of staples experiencing growth

Fitch Solutions notes that within the bread, rice and cereals category, spending will be dominated by rice which will account for 57.5 percent of total spending in 2025, followed by other cereals, at 33.3 percent and bread at 8.4 percent.

However, since 2011, there has been a gradual shift away from rice, which historically dominated staples spending, accounting for 73.9 percent of staples spending in 2011. In contrast, the other category, which accounts for millet and sorghum has gradually been seeing its share of staples increase, from 15.3 percent in 2011.

Moreover, the research firm projects that Diary foods will be the fastest growing food spending category, increasing by an average of 12.1 percent, over the 2011 to 2025 period. The diary category includes milk, cheese, eggs and milk products.

Among these, Fitch Solutions projects eggs to account for the largest proportion of diary spending in 2025, at 39.0 percent, then milk, at 38.0 percent and milk products at 21 percent. When compared to 2011, dairy spending consisted of 47.0 percent milk spending, 2.0 percent cheese spending, 25.0 percent spending on eggs and 26.0 percent spending on milk products.

Furthermore, fresh vegetables are a vital component of Ivorian food budgets, accounting for 27.0% of total food spending in 2025. Also, fresh vegetables spending is one of the fastest growing categories, forecast to grow at an average of 9.4% a year, over the 2011 to 2025 period.

This strong growth is being supported by the shift from subsistence vegetable farming to commercial farming. With these commercial farming vegetables, they are sold through formal retail channels such as mass grocery shops which are gradually becoming a key feature of urban centres of the country.