Keir Starmer is under pressure to clarify his defence spending pledge after a senior cabinet minister admitted that the prime minister’s figures were misleading. The controversy comes as Starmer prepares for a crucial meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington.

During a Downing Street press conference on Tuesday, February 25, the prime minister vowed to increase the UK’s defence budget from 2.3% to 2.5% of GDP. He claimed this would result in an additional £13.4 billion per year for the armed forces. However, analysts at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) have cast doubt on this calculation, arguing that the real increase would amount to only £6 billion annually.

On Wednesday, February 26, Defence Secretary John Healey was forced to concede that the government’s figures were not entirely accurate. Healey stated that the actual increase in real terms “would be something over £6 billion” and acknowledged that the definition of defence spending figures could be interpreted in different ways.

Shadow Defence Secretary James Cartlidge was quick to seize on the admission, declaring that the government’s announcement had “unravelled in just 24 hours.”

“It now appears the figure is just half of what Keir Starmer promised to parliament today. If Labour are serious about boosting our armed forces, they need to be straight about the facts of what they’ve announced.”
James Cartlidge

The IFS has also accused Starmer of “playing silly games with numbers” and providing “totally inconsistent figures” measured against different benchmarks. Ben Zaranko, associate director at the IFS, highlighted the discrepancy in the figures.

“It’s hard to be certain without more detail from the Treasury, but this figure only seems to make sense if one thinks the defence budget would otherwise have been frozen in cash terms.”
Ben Zaranko

Mauritius Agreement Raises Further Concerns

Further scrutiny has emerged over whether the defence spending uplift represents new money at all. Critics point to Starmer’s proposed deal with Mauritius over the Chagos Islands, which they claim could see defence funds redirected to lease the strategically significant Diego Garcia military base.

A government official, however, rejected the claim, asserting that there were “orders of magnitude” between the increase in defence spending and any payments to Mauritius. “It’s nonsense,” the source added.

The deal has also prompted accusations that Starmer is attempting to “con Donald Trump” into believing there has been a genuine increase in defence spending.

Currently, the UK operates a joint military base with the U.S. on the Chagos Islands under British sovereignty. If control of the islands is transferred to Mauritius, Britain will have to lease back the base at an annual cost reported to be around £90 million.

Starmer insisted that the defence spending increase would not include payments to Mauritius, stating in parliament that it was “for our capability on defence and security in Europe.” He also emphasized that the Chagos deal is “extremely important for our security, for US security.”

The controversy over Starmer’s defence budget announcement comes just as he prepares for high-profile meetings in Washington. The prime minister is set to meet Donald Trump following similar visits by French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Zelensky’s visit follows a minerals trade deal with the U.S., which had been strongly advocated by the Trump administration. Ukrainian officials have indicated that the agreement, which will ensure continued American military support for Ukraine’s war effort against Russia, could be formally signed in Washington.

Previously, Zelensky had criticized the proposed 50% U.S. stake in Ukraine’s rare minerals industry, arguing that such a deal would be akin to “selling his nation.” However, Kyiv now appears satisfied with the revised agreement, which is expected to reinforce military aid commitments from the U.S.

With global security at the forefront of discussions, Starmer’s defence spending figures will likely come under further scrutiny as he engages with world leaders.