In a bid to address the severe overcrowding in prisons, Keir Starmer’s government has announced a controversial plan to release thousands of prisoners after serving only 40% of their sentences.

Additionally, the government will recruit 1,000 new probation officers to manage this transition and avert what has been described as “a total breakdown of law and order.”

Shabana Mahmood, the Lord Chancellor, presented the new policy as a necessary measure to prevent a potential disaster.

She warned that if the current situation is not addressed, it could lead to delayed sentencing by courts and an inability for police to arrest dangerous criminals, thereby endangering public safety.

“If we fail to act now, we face the collapse of the criminal justice system. And a total breakdown of law and order,” Mahmood stated at a press conference held at HMP Five Wells in Northamptonshire.

Starting in September, the government will temporarily adjust the proportion of certain custodial sentences served in prison from 50% to 40% in England and Wales.

This policy will include safeguards and exemptions to ensure public safety and clear release plans to manage offenders safely within the community.

Serious violent offenders sentenced to four years or more and those convicted of sexual offenses will be excluded from early release.

Additionally, unlike the previous End-of-Custody Supervised License (ECSL) scheme, offenders convicted of domestic abuse-related crimes will not be eligible for early release.

The scheme is projected to allow several thousand prisoners to be released early within the year. According to sources, the early releases will be carried out gradually to manage the transition smoothly.

During her initial visits as Lord Chancellor, Mahmood met with probation staff and toured HMP Bedford and HMP Five Wells.

“When prisons are full, violence rises – putting prison officers on the frontline at risk. When no cells are available, suspects cannot be held in custody. This means vanloads of dangerous people circling the country, with nowhere to go. The police would have to use their cells as a prison overflow, keeping officers off the streets. Soon, the courts would grind to a halt, unable to hold trials.
“With officers unable to act, criminals could do whatever they want, without consequence. We could see looters running amok, smashing in windows, robbing shops, and setting neighborhoods alight. In short, if we fail to act now, we face the collapse of the criminal justice system. And a total breakdown of law and order.”
Shabana Mahmood

Support For Government’s Initiative

Chief Constable Gavin Stephens, Chair of the National Police Chiefs’ Council, expressed support for the government’s swift action on this pressing issue. “It is pleasing to see the new government has taken action on this pressing issue so quickly,” he said.

“We are supporting the Ministry of Justice and other partners in the criminal justice system to manage the impact of these changes, particularly around supporting victims, families and others who will be affected.”
Gavin Stephens

The adult male prison estate has been operating at over 99% capacity since early 2023, with the government warning that prison cells could be completely filled within weeks.

As part of the plan to manage the impending crisis, Mahmood confirmed the discontinuation of the ECSL scheme introduced by the previous government in October 2023.

Initially designed to alleviate prison capacity pressures by releasing prisoners 18 days early, the ECSL scheme has seen over 10,000 offenders released over the past six months.

Under the new scheme, those released will be strictly monitored by the Probation Service, potentially through electronic tagging and curfews.

Justice officials emphasized that serious offenders, who either spend two-thirds of their sentences behind bars or have their release determined by the Parole Board, will not be eligible for early release.

With the new measures, the government aims to strike a balance between alleviating prison overcrowding and ensuring public safety, addressing an issue that has reached a critical juncture.