The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects overall traveler numbers to reach 4.0 billion in 2024 – counting multi-sector connecting trips as one passenger – exceeding pre-COVID-19 levels.
Expectations for the shape of the near-term recovery have shifted slightly, reflecting the evolution of government-imposed travel restrictions in some markets. The overall picture presented in the latest update to IATA’s long-term forecast, however, is unchanged from what was expected in November, prior to the emergence of the Omicron variant.
“The trajectory for the recovery in passenger numbers from COVID-19 was not changed by the Omicron variant. People want to travel. And when travel restrictions are lifted, they return to the skies. There is still a long way to go to reach a normal state of affairs, but the forecast for the evolution in passenger numbers gives good reason to be optimistic”.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General
Traveler numbers to improve in 2022
The February update also highlighted that in 2021, overall traveler numbers were 47% of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 83% in 2022, 94% in 2023, 103% in 2024 and 111% in 2025.
This is a slightly more optimistic near-term international recovery scenario compared to November 2021, based on the progressive relaxation or elimination of travel restrictions in many markets. This has seen improvements in the major North Atlantic and intra-European markets, strengthening the baseline for recovery. Asia-Pacific is expected to continue to lag the recovery with the region’s largest market, China, not showing any signs of relaxing its severe border measures in the near future.
The outlook for the evolution of domestic traveler numbers is slightly more pessimistic than in November. While the US and Russian domestic markets have recovered, the same is not true for the other major domestic markets of China, Canada, Japan and Australia. Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General said the biggest and most immediate factor affecting air travel is the restrictions that governments placed on international travels.
“ Fortunately, more governments have understood that travel restrictions have little to no long-term impact on the spread of a virus. And the economic and social hardship caused for very limited benefit is simply no longer acceptable in a growing number of markets. As a result, the progressive removal of restrictions is giving a much-needed boost to the prospects for travel”.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General
Regional variations in recovery of air travel
Not all markets or market sectors are recovering at the same pace but “In general, we are moving in the right direction, but there are some concerns. Asia-Pacific is the laggard of the recovery. While Australia and New Zealand have announced measures to reconnect with the world, China is showing no signs of relaxing its zero-COVID strategy”, Walsh said.
In the Asia-Pacific region, the slow removal of international travel restrictions, and the likelihood of renewed domestic restrictions during COVID outbreaks, mean that traffic to/from/within Asia Pacific will only reach 68% of 2019 levels in 2022.
Recent data released by the IATA show that Asia-Pacific airlines saw their air cargo volumes increase 4.9% in January 2022 compared to the same month in 2021, showing some positive signs of improvement this year.
In the next few years, the intra-Europe market is expected to benefit from passenger preferences for short-haul travel as confidence rebuilds. This will be facilitated by increasingly harmonized and restriction-free movement within the EU. Total passenger numbers to/from/within Europe are expected to reach 86% of 2019 values in 2022, before making a full recovery in 2024. Available data from the IATA show that European carriers saw a 7.0% increase in cargo volumes in January 2022 compared to the same month in 2021.
Developments in America and Africa
In 2022, passenger numbers in North America are forecast to reach 94% of 2019 levels, and full recovery is expected in 2023 (102%), ahead of other regions.
In Africa, the IATA expects passenger numbers to/from/within Africa to recover more gradually than in other regions, reaching 76% of 2019 levels in 2022, surpassing pre-crisis levels only in 2025.
Passenger numbers to/from/within the Middle East are expected to reach 81% of 2019 levels in 2022, 98% in 2024 and 105% in 2025. Likewise, traffic to/from/within Latin America is forecast to surpass 2019 levels in 2023 for Central America (102%), followed by South America in 2024 (103%) and the Caribbean in 2025 (101%).
Meanwhile, the IATA iterates its call for the removal of all travel barriers (including quarantine and testing) for those fully vaccinated with a WHO-approved vaccine
It also calls for accelerating the easing of travel restrictions in recognition that travelers pose no greater risk for COVID-19 spread than already exists in the general population.
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