Early in his political career, a severe earthquake and economic difficulties helped propelled Recep Tayyip Erdogan to power in Turkey. Similar circumstances threaten his leadership two decades later.
Erdogan, a contentious and controversial figure, will run for a third consecutive term as president on May 14 following three terms as prime minister, extending his authority into a third decade. He is already Turkey’s longest-serving leader.
The presidential and legislative elections could be the most difficult yet for Erdogan, 69. Most surveys show his opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, of the secular, center-left Republican People’s Party, or CHP, with a modest lead. The fate of the presidential election could be decided in a runoff vote on May 28.
Erdogan faces a difficult election due to public discontent over growing prices and his handling of the February 6 earthquake in southern Turkey, which killed over 50,000 people, destroyed communities, and left millions homeless. His political opponents blame the high death toll on the government’s delayed response and failure to enforce construction rules.
Some even point to government mismanagement of the 1999 earthquake in northwestern Turkey, near the city of Izmit that killed around 18,000 people. They claimed the taxes adopted as a result of that disaster, were improperly utilized and worsened the effects of this year’s quake.
Erdogan’s political party, created in 2001, came to power in the midst of an economic crisis and the Izmit earthquake. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, or AKP, capitalized on popular outrage over the government’s handling of the catastrophe, and he became prime minister in 2003 and has never given up control of the country.
Despite the anger directed at Erdogan for his handling of the February earthquake and the economy, analysts warn against underestimating him, citing his enduring appeal among working- and middle-class religious voters who had long felt alienated by Turkey’s former secular and Western-leaning elites.
Erdogan’s Achievements
Erdogan’s nationalist policies are often aggressive posture against the West, and initiatives that have boosted the profile of Islam in the country, still resonate with conservative followers. They referred to an economic boom in the first part of his presidency that pulled many people out of poverty, as evidence of his capacity to turn things around.
“There is an economic crisis in Turkey, we can’t deny it. And yes, this economic crisis has had a huge impact on us,” said Sabit Celik, a 38-year-old shop owner said. “But still, I don’t think anyone else but Erdogan can come and fix this, I think our salvation is through the ruling party again,” he said.
Many also point to major infrastructure projects begun during his tenure, highways, bridges, airports, hospitals, and low-income housing.
Erdogan himself has conceded that there were shortcomings in the early days of the February earthquake but insisted the situation was quickly brought under control.
Erdogan has focused his reelection campaign on rebuilding the quake-stricken areas, and has affirmed to build 319,000 homes within the year. At rally after rally, he has recalled his past projects as proof that, the region can only be reconstructed by his government, and that any other leader cannot rebuild the quake-affected regions.
Series of spending measures, has been announced by President Erdogan, to bring temporary relief to those hardest-hit by inflation, including raising minimum wages and pensions. Also, measures are being made to allow some people to take early retirement, and providing assistance to consumers for electricity and natural gas.
Focus has played on the defense sector, to boost production of drones and fighter jets and building an amphibious landing vessel that the government terms it as “the world’s first drone carrier.”
“While we were a country that could not even produce pins, an unmanned aerial plane flew above our skies the other day,” said Mustafa Agaoglu, another Erdogan supporter in Istanbul. “We now have our warships, our aircraft carriers, our roads, our bridges, our city hospitals,” he added.
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