“Reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum or risk military intervention.” This was the ultimatum declared by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to Niger’s CNSP following their coup on July 26, 2023, which toppled Bazoum’s government. The deadline elapsed on Sunday, August 6, 2023, and it remains to be seen what the Tinubu-led ECOWAS’ response will be.

As the ECOWAS Chairperson, Nigerian President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, is facing a lot of pressure to find solution to the situation. Interestingly, Niger is located right on top of Nigeria. The proximity of these two countries make the quest to restore constitutional rule more urgent.

The bloc stated that it would take “all measures” to restore constitutional order and “such measures may include the use of force.” The group has also assured that any kind of military intervention would only be used as a last resort, “the very last option on the table” as ECOWAS Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security Abdel-Fatau Musah puts it.

The Nigerien military have stated that the coup was a response to “the degradation of the security situation” linked to armed bloodshed, as well as corruption and economic woes.

In a clear display of defiance and should I say, proactivity, the generals who staged the coup or the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP) have closed Niger’s airspace “until further notice.”

CNSP Spokesman, Amadou Abdramane, cited the threat of military intervention from the ECOWAS as the reason. This moves points to the group’s steel like resolve to hold on to power.

Transitional leader of Niger, Abdourahmane Tchiani and his cohorts, who constitute the CNSP are not alone. Apart from support from the large number of the masses, they have the support of Mali and Burkina Faso.

These two countries which are ruled by military juntas have declared that any military intervention against Niger “would be tantamount to a declaration of war” against them. Both countries are situated close to Niger and that makes it easier for them to send troops into Niger.

Also, the country which has been dominating news headlines almost every week for its invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s Russia has opposed military intervention in Niger.

The Russian flag has become a constant spectacle in rallies and demonstrations staged by coup supporters, signalling a switch of alliance from former colonial power, France to Russia.

Despite having vast deposits of uranium, Niger, a landlocked country, often ranks last in the UN’s Human Development Index.

It is also one of the world’s poorest countries. It seems that the coup leaders as well as their supporters, are oblivious or have chosen to ignore the stark reality that the country has fallen deeper in the quagmire of poverty and underdevelopment as a result of the putsch.

ECOWAS imposed economic and travel sanctions following the coup and these sanctions have begun biting. The bloc also heaped financial sanctions on the coup leaders and the country, freezing “all commercial and financial transactions” between member states and Niger. Nigeria, which supplies a great percentage of the electricity in Niger, has cut off some of the supply.

Former colonial ruler, France as well as the European Union have suspended security cooperation and financial aid to Niger. The World Bank also announced that it was suspending disbursements to Niger until further notice.

As such, food prices have begun to soar which will affect the daily lives of about 25 million people in Niger.

Is Military Intervention A Good Idea?

In 2017, the ECOWAS helped usher out former Gambian autocrat, Yahya Jammeh, who refused to hand over power after losing elections. This goes to show that the bloc is not new to the use of military intervention to restore decorum.

However, military intervention risks causing a regional conflict as Burkina Faso and Mali will automatically join forces with Niger’s military, spreading the fight into other countries.

As the saying goes, when two elephants fights, the grass suffers. This raises the fear of civilians suffering the most in the advent of a military intervention. Curfews will certainly impose a pause on people day to day activities, children’s education can be halted, jobs will be affected and that is just on the lighter note. When tensions escalate into the exchange of fire power, tragic loss of lives and maimings will be the aftermath.

Niger is located in Africa’s Sahel region where armed groups linked to al-Qaeda and ISIL (ISIS) have been expanding their range. In the advent of a war, these jihadist groups can take advantage and wreck further havoc.

West African terrain is faced with economic woes and corruption is even exhibited in broad daylight. Just as the Niger coup plotters cited corruption and economic woes as part of their reason for their coup, there is a possibility of soldiers of other countries in the region staging similar stunts.