The Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Musa Danquah has stated that even though the New Patriotic Party Parliamentary Candidate for the Ejisu by-election is leading the race per its recent survey, the influence of the Independent Candidate cannot be overlooked.
Mr Danquah in a detailed analysis following a survey conducted by the Global InfoAnalytics underscored the intriguing dynamics that could reshape the political landscape of the constituency in the April 30th by-election.
He began by stating that the poll sampled 1351 voters from 19 out of 28 electoral areas revealed a tough contest between the New Patriotic Party’s candidate, Lawyer Kwabena Boateng and Independent Candidate Kwabena Owusu Aduomi.
“The sample of the electoral areas were drawn from heavy, middle and low density populated areas of the constituency, thus ensuring that areas covered are representative of the constituency and allowing us to carry out analysis of the rest not polled using Multilevel regression with post stratification (MRP) analysis to carry out deeper understanding of the constituency”.
Musa Danquah, Executive Director Global InfoAnalytics
Commenting on the details of the report, Mr Danquah stated that the numbers reveal a tight race, with the New Patriotic Party candidate, Lawyer Kwabena Boateng holding a slender lead of 50.6% over Kwabena Owusu Aduomi, the independent candidate support of 47.5%.
However, Mr Danquah stated that the margin of error 3.42% of the survey blurs the distinction, rendering the race statistically tied.
He emphasized that the outcome of the April 30th by-election hinges on pivotal factors, primarily voter turnout and party loyalty.
Furthermore, the Executive Director of the Global InfoAnalytics stated that an analysis of party affiliations underscores the volatility of the electorate in the Ejisu Constituency.
According to him, while 70% of respondents were identified to be affiliated to the ruling New Patriotic Party, a significant 36% out of them expressed intent to vote for the Independent Candidate, signaling potential defections within the ruling party’s base within the Ejisu Constituency.
Mr Danquah also noted that the Independent Candidate, Kwabena Owusu Aduomi influence extends beyond traditional party lines, as he garnered support from 92% of the opposition National Democratic Congress supporters and a substantial majority of floating voters as well as supporters of other parties.
NPP Faces a Tough Race Amidst Independent Candidate’s Popularity
Moreover, Musa Danquah, the Executive Director of the Global InfoAnalytics posited that the popularity of the Independent Candidate, Kwabena Owusu Aduomi posed a formidable challenge to the New Patriotic Party ahead of the by-election.
He stressed that should Mr Aduomi secure victory, he could wield considerable influence in the country’s hang Parliament, with the possibility of him altering the balance of power in the august house.
In assessing the governing New Patriotic Party’s strategy ahead of the by-election, Musa Danquah underscored the need for the ruling party to mobilize its base while minimizing defections.
He emphasized that the success of the incumbent party’s parliamentary candidate in the Ejisu by-election hinges on maintaining at least 70% support of its loyalists for its candidates Lawyer Kwabena Boateng.
He warned that failure for the New Patriotic Party to meet the above mentioned threshold could pave the way for a seismic upset, with the Independent Candidate, Kwabena Owusu Aduomi likely to capitalize on broader coalition support.
In addition, Mr Danquah indicated that the intricacies of the Ejisu poll extend beyond the parliamentary by-election, offering insights into broader electoral trends.
He noted that Mr Aduomi’s success does not necessarily translate to support for the founder and leader for the Movement for Change, Alan Kyerematen.
Mr Danquah also stated that while supporters of the opposition National Democratic Congress expressed their intention to vote for the Independent Candidate, Kwabena Owusu Aduomi, they however maintained their allegiance to former President John Dramani Mahama.
The Ejisu poll, he noted affirmed a pattern observed nationally, in which the Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia appears to be losing significant supporters of the ruling party to the leader of the Movement for Change, Alan Kyeremanten.
Mr Danquah concluded by stating that despite the fact that the Ejisu by-election teeters on a knife-edge, with the New Patriotic Party holding a tenuous advantage, the popularity of the Independent candidate signals a seismic shift in the constituency, underscoring the volatility and unpredictability of electoral dynamics.
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