According to Mussa Dankwah, recent polls conducted in July across various constituencies in the Northern region reveal divergent voter trends, indicating differing levels of support for each presidential candidate if elections were to take place today.
Dankwah indicated that the poll in the Gushegu constituency reveals a breakdown of voter preferences, with 57% favoring John Dramani Mahama, 42% supporting Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, and a marginal 1% backing Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen.
He stated that the polls indicate a tight race in the Karaga constituency, with Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia holding a narrow lead at 52% of the vote, closely followed by John Dramani Mahama at 48%.
“Mion [Constituency] -Northern region: John Dramani Mahama 25%; Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, 30%; Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen, 2%; other candidates, 2% and Undecided voters, 41%”.
“Tolon [Constituency]-Northern region: John Dramani Mahama 60%; Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, 34%; other candidates, 2% and undecided voters 4%”.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah also observed that in the Zabzugu constituency, the polls show a significant lead for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, with 52% of voters expressing support for him, while 38% prefer John Dramani Mahama.
Notably, he pointed out that a mere 10% of voters in this constituency remain undecided, a relatively small proportion compared to the clear preferences expressed for the leading candidates.
Dankwah revealed that aggregate polling data from the five constituencies – Gushegu, Karaga, Mion, Tolon, and Zabzugu – reveals a tight contest, with John Dramani Mahama holding a slim lead at 46%, closely trailed by Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia at 43%.
The remaining vote share, Dankwah stated, is split between other candidates, who collectively secured a negligible 1%, and undecided voters, who account for 10% of the electorate.
Kufour Emerges As Top Democratic Leader In Northern Constituencies
Additionally, Mussa Dankwah observed that when respondents in the Northern constituencies of Gushegu, Karaga, Mion, Tolon, and Zabzugu were asked to identify the best democratic leader of Ghana, the results showed a close contest between John Agyekum Kufour and Dr. Kwame Nkrumah.
He noted that John Agyekum Kufour secured 41% of the votes, narrowly ahead of Dr. Kwame Nkrumah, who trailed with 37% in a closely contested poll.
Dankwah revealed that President Akufo-Addo, with 35% approval, surpasses the popularity of all NDC presidents, including Jerry John Rawlings, who garnered 20%, and John Mahama, who recorded 29%.
Late President John Evans Atta-Mills emerges as the most popular NDC president in these Northern constituencies, securing 33% of the votes and outpacing his peers.
“Interesting polling numbers from the Northern region. Is DMB drawing more of JDM 2020 votes as some have suggested? Polls are suggesting fine MPs [are] being punished for the sins of the government. Interesting times ahead”.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah further observed that the polling data reveals a tight contest for the Muslim vote in the constituencies of Gushegu, Karaga, Mion, Tolon, and Zabzugu, with John Dramani Mahama edging ahead at 45%, closely followed by Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia at 43%.
The Data Analyst revealed that the polling data shows John Dramani Mahama leading among Christian voters in the constituencies of Gushegu, Karaga, Mion, Tolon, and Zabzugu, with a 12-point margin, securing 44% of the votes compared to Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s 32%.
This trend suggests a decline in Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s popularity among Christian voters across the five constituencies in the Northern Region, indicating a potential area of concern for his campaign.
According to Dankwah, voting patterns in the constituencies of Gushegu, Karaga, Mion, Tolon, and Zabzugu reveal a stark party loyalty, with NDC and NPP supporters consistently voting along party lines, showing minimal crossover support.
However, Dankwah noted that floating voters in these constituencies tend to lean towards John Dramani Mahama, the NDC flagbearer, suggesting a potential advantage for him among undecided voters.
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