Mussa Dankwah, the Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, indicated that, according to the October 2024 national poll, NPP voters made up 69% of the coalition that secured Nana Addo’s victory in the 2020 elections.
He noted that Global InfoAnalytics had accurately predicted this outcome through its data analysis and forecasting models.
Dankwah further noted that NDC voters made up approximately 8% of Nana Addo’s coalition, while floating voters accounted for around 12% of the total support base, highlighting the diverse composition of the coalition.
“4% of the coalition were from other parties and 6% did not disclose their parties. However, for the 2024 elections, the data shows that NPP voters now constitute nearly 85% of DMB’s coalition, NDC, is now 2%, floating voters, 7%, other parties, 1%, and Not Disclosed, 5%”.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah explained that this indicates Dr. Bawumia now relies significantly more on his party’s base compared to Nana Addo, as he has increased the party’s share of the coalition by nearly 16%.
He noted that, however, the support Dr. Bawumia receives from NDC voters has decreased by 6%, showing a reduced appeal to opposition voters.
Additionally, the pollster indicated that support from crucial floating voters—who are often decisive in elections—has dropped by 5%, signaling a need for more outreach to this group.
Dankwah stated that support from other smaller parties has also declined by 3%, reflecting less cross-party appeal, and support among those who did not disclose their affiliation is down by 1%.
According to him, these shifts highlight a more polarized coalition that leans heavily on core NPP supporters, with reduced backing from other segments that previously contributed to Nana Addo’s broader coalition.
Dankwah asserted that the decline in support from floating voters and NDC voters within Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s coalition is highly significant.
This shift could be a decisive factor in determining his chances of success in the upcoming December 2024 elections, as these groups have historically played crucial roles in Ghana’s electoral outcomes.
Mahama Broadens Coalition for 2024 Elections
Furthermore, Mussa Dankwah stated that John Mahama has successfully reduced his reliance on the NDC by broadening his coalition for the 2024 elections compared to the 2020 elections.
Dankwah stated that notably, Mahama’s dependence on NDC voters has decreased by 10%, allowing him to attract a more diverse voter base and strengthen his overall electoral strategy ahead of the upcoming election.
“… However, NPP voters’ contribution to his [Mahama’s] coalition has increased by 1% and floating voters now play greater role in his coalition as their contribution has also increased by 5%. Those from other parties marginally declined by 0.3% but those who don’t disclose their parties, they up 3%”.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah further indicated that for other candidates, including Alan and Cheddar, the NPP’s contribution to their overall support has increased by 8%.
He stated that this shift highlights the growing influence of the party in diversifying its political alliances and attracting a broader voter base as the elections draw nearer.
The pollster noted that in contrast, support from the NDC has decreased by 1%, indicating a shift in voter loyalty.
He explained that although support from floating voters has largely remained consistent, contributions from individuals who do not disclose their party affiliation—“whom we believe are mainly NPP supporters”—have increased by nearly 16% for these candidates.
Dankwah stated that this trend suggests a growing dissatisfaction with traditional party lines and an increasing willingness among voters to explore alternative political options.
He noted that this trend suggests a significant portion of undecided voters may be gravitating toward alternative options.
Dankwah indicated that this shift reflects a potential transformation in the political landscape as the elections approach. “This data sums up the possible outcome of the 2024 election for those who understand data”.
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