Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, has highlighted a notable shift in voter loyalty within the NPP ahead of the 2024 elections.
Dankwah indicated that according to the October 2024 polls, only 92% of NPP voters are expected to back Dr. Bawumia, compared to the 98% who supported Nana Addo in the 2020 elections.
According to him, this 6% drop suggests that Dr. Bawumia may be facing challenges in securing the same level of support from the party’s base that his predecessor enjoyed.
“Only 2% of NPP voters voted for Mahama in the 2020 election but now, that figure is 6%. The poll also shows that in the 2020 elections, only 81% of NDC voters voted for Mahama but that figure is now 98%.
“19% of NDC voters voted for Nana Addo in the 2020 elections but now only 1% intend to vote for Dr Bawumia in the 2024 elections”.
Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics
Dankwah also revealed a significant shift among floating voters, according to the latest poll.
He indicated that in 2020, 77% of floating voters supported Nana Addo, but for the 2024 elections, only 21% intend to vote for Dr. Bawumia.
The pollster stated that in contrast, while 20% of floating voters backed Mahama in 2020, his support among this group has surged, with 57% now planning to vote for him in the upcoming election.
Accordingly, Dankwah asserted that this shift highlights a dramatic realignment of floating voter preferences, which could heavily influence the outcome of the 2024 elections.
He further noted a significant change in voter behavior among supporters of other parties.
According to Dankwah, in the 2020 elections, Nana Addo secured 59% of their votes, but Dr. Bawumia is now polling at just 15%.
Conversely, John Dramani Mahama garnered the support of 14% of these voters in 2020, but that figure has more than doubled to 30% in 2024.
Undeclared Voter Support Shifts Dramatically
Furthermore, Mussa Dankwah highlighted a significant shift among voters who do not disclose their party affiliations, noting that while 79% supported Nana Addo in 2020, only 27% plan to back Dr. Bawumia in 2024.
He indicated that in contrast, Mahama, who secured just 16% of their votes in 2020, has seen his support rise to 38% for the upcoming election.
This dramatic realignment, according to Dankwah, highlights a growing preference for Mahama among previously undecided or discreet voters, while Dr. Bawumia appears to be losing traction within this crucial group.
“Folks, the bottom line is that the difference is clear why we are where we are today according to the polls. Does these underlying data suggest this election will be close compared to 2020?
“… The polls will sooner or later make sense to all of us who will live to see the 2024 election results. Data does not lie”.
Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics
Regarding changes in voting patterns by ethnicity in the 2024 elections compared to 2020, Mussa Dankwah revealed that Dr. Bawumia faces significant challenges among the Akans, Ghana’s largest ethnic group.
He indicated that only 46% of Akans plan to vote for Bawumia in 2024, a sharp decline from the 72% who supported Nana Akufo-Addo in 2020.
Meanwhile, John Mahama has seen increased support among the Akan, with 44% intending to vote for him in 2024, up from 28% in 2020.
Dankwah pointed out that this shift highlights a profound change in the political dynamics within the Akan community.
The pollster emphasized that if Dr. Bawumia fails to gain substantial support from the Akan ethnic group—historically a strong and reliable voting bloc for the NPP—his prospects for victory in December 2024 will be severely compromised.
Given Akan’s pivotal role in past elections, a lack of enthusiasm from this demographic could hinder his campaign efforts and diminish his overall chances of success.
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